Christmas Forecast

Just A quick check of the Christmas forecast.


Wintry mix on Christmas Eve, with a high of 38.
Sunny and 40 on Christmas Day. My forecast is holding up that I put out on the 13th. :)

Have a good week!

When All Is Said and Done

After this well-hyped fiasco of a snowstorm, maybe an inch of snow fell, mostly ice! Wow! White Christmas, you may ask. Here are the historic probabilities of a white Christmas!

Warmup midweek, before rain Thursday, and on the weekend! Average Christmas, with highs in the 30s and partly sunny skies!

Winter Weather Advisory

HERE IS THE OFFICIAL STATEMENT ON TONIGHT'S WINTER WEATHER SITUATION!

IF YOU DON'T FEEL LIKE READING ALL OF THIS, I'LL JUST SUM IT FOR YOU!
THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IN SOUTHERN INDIANA, 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED! SOUTH OF THE RIVER, 1-2 INCHES IS LIKELY!

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Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
TONIGHT...AND INTO OHIO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR
AND SNOW INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL DEVELOP CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ030>037-040>043-049-160600-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WW.Y.0007.071216T0300Z-071216T1800Z/

ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
CLARK KY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...
SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...WINCHESTER

400 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 /300 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SUNDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE RIVER...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING.

RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEFORE SNOW BEGINS WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATING ON TOP OF ICY ROAD SURFACES...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND ICY ROADS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...SIGNIFICANT REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION
AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION.

8 AM Saturday

Here's the radar as of 8 AM.

You see a mix going on now!

Winter Weather Advisory for northcentral Kentucky and southcentral Indiana until noon. 1 inch of icy accumulation!

Winter storm warning for central Indiana. 3-6 inches of snow.

Flood watch for Kentucky. 1-2 inches of rain expected today.

More warnings could be issued tonight! I'll update that later!

It's A Tight Squeeze

It's a new day, and it's still the same! there's no one of telling what this storm will do next! A National Weather Service meteorologist wrote this at noon today:

I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ISSTILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORMTRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HYDRO ISSUES.

So, what now! First, check out the watches and warnings.

If you can see this, all of the northern part of the area is under a winter storm watch, and all south in Kentucky is under a Flood watch for Saturday and Sunday!

Perry, Clark, Floyd, Harrison, and Crawford counties in Indiana are right on the line between big snow and big rain, and thus no watches have been issued yet!

Again, how much snow?

Potential Breakdown of Snow Periods:

...Which all totals up to...?

It's so confusing!!! Breaking it down more, we see this:

It's going to be a close call! I'll try to update the blog as much as possible tomorrow! remember, since it will be saturday, the news will not be on as much tomorrow! If the track shifts, chances are, you're not going to know it!!!

I'll try to post once more tonight!

Alex

Remember,

I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ISSTILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORMTRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HYDRO ISSUES.

Mark Weinberg: "They are way underestimating the warm air advection on this system. You absolutely must have a northeast wind from the surface to about 1 mile off the ground to sustain snow here. We will have a southeast wind from the surface up to 1 mile and that always forces a slot of very warm air into the mid levels of the atmosphere despite what any computer model says."

When will this confusion end???

The questions remain!

Well, the snow situation is still a close call and we're getting mixed messages!

Here's the National Weather Service's thoughts. The middle area is 1-2", and the white area is 2-4 inches.





Now take a peek at another one!!! A close call again!



Now, the accuweather forecast! Again, a close call!

Now the watches and warnings map from FOX 41!

So, according to this, if you live in Paoli, Scottsburg, or Salem, it looks like 2-12 inches!

If you're in New Albany to Charlestown, its 1-8 inches.

If you're in the Ville, 1-6 inches.

E'town: 1-3"

Bowling Green, nothing!

A very tight gradient is what we have here! if the track varies just a little, a lot of different things could happen, as mentioned before!

Looking to the northeast for a moment, look at all the snow they will have!

This is just tonight! Add to that this weekends storm and they will have a good 2 feet of snow in some places (maybe even 3 feet)!!!

After saying all this, you may wonder what my opinion is! I've been saying 2-4 inches, but I received an e-mail from Chief Meteorologist Mark Weinberg and he had this to say:

Alex,

They are way underestimating the warm air advection on this system. You absolutely must have a northeast wind from the surface to about 1 mile off the ground to sustain snow here. We will have a southeast wind from the surface up to 1 mile and that always forces a slot of very warm air into the mid levels of the atmosphere despite what any computer model says. That always leads to a transition as well and therefore I am starting with snow Friday night, then rapidly changing to all rain or rain/slush early Saturday morning around 7-9am, then finally back to snow around 7-9 pm Saturday. The accumulation in Louisville should be 1” to maybe 2” of snow and 2” to maybe a generous 5” in the extreme northern slice of Kentuckiana (like Seymour/Vernon/Bedford).

I hope this helps and don’t forget to credit me if you are using any of my forecast.

Marc Weinberg
WDRB Fox 41 Chief Meteorologist

That's as good of credit I can give you, Marc!!!

No picture for his map that I can find yet, but I will try to find it! He gives a pretty convincing argument for what he has to say! You may want to take his word for it!

His map is most like the NWS map!

christmas forecast stays the same!!

Alex C.

How about snow? First, let me show you how lucky we are that we just have rain!!!

This is the scene in portions of the midwest, particularly in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and parts of Illinois. In the following picture, any area in pink or white is experiencing a winter weather disaster.

Our peace the winter weather world will not last long however. A storm is forecast to move through our area Saturday, bringing snow, sleet, and possibly a little rain on the onset. Check out the National Weather Service thoughts on this weekends

storm.

Interesting, isn't it! Now check out the Accuweather forecast.

Does that say 6-12 inches? in fact, yes, it does! Scary thought, but could easily be true! But, looking back at those two maps, if the storm system moves just a little bit, we will see a mix or just plain rain. If it moves the other way, we'll be seeing an easy foot of snow!

Oh, the possibilities!!!!

Times and accumulations will be updated again tomorrow.

change the Christmas forecast too.

Christmas day is expected to be cold, windy, and 37 degrees now.

Let the crazy, unpredictable winter begin!!!

Let It Snow?

Well, the Christmas forecast doesn't look so great right now.

Here is the first Christmas forecast!

Sunny and 50!

No snow, as it looks right now! However, this is PRELIMINARY! This is not the final forecast! Look for frequent changes. I'm not saying it's going to snow on Christmas, but check out when it might snow!

Here are to possible tracks to Saturday's storm from the National Weatehr Service!

This track supports rain to snow in our area.

Now check out this track!

Now a clearer view!

I will not give you any idea of snow amounts just yet! Be patient, this is hard to predict!

The 12 weather days of Christmas start tomorrow!

Alex C.

More Weather

Here's the National Weather Service Forecast:
Tonight: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy dense fog. Low around 44. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: Periods of showers, mainly before 7am. Patchy dense fog before 7am. High near 44. North wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 42. Calm wind becoming northeast between 4 and 7 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind 7 to 13 mph becoming southwest. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

The Winter Approaches

Stealthily from the northwest it approaches! The next 7 days can be summarized easily!
Rain off and on for the next 7 days in our area! The heaviest rain will be Sunday! This will not be a consistent 7 day rain, but off and on!

How about Christmas! do I have a guess at that forecast yet! Well, here's the best I can do for now!

No pictures, no guess! It's anyone's guess right now! December 11 i will post the Christmas forecast!