New Years Eve 2008: 2pm

Happy New Year's Eve!

Storm systems on Friday and Sunday will bring little or no accumulation. Tuesday's storm looks more interesting as to the precip type, so that storm will need to be watched...

Alex C.

Tuesday, December 30th, 2008: 5pm

Tomorrow morning will be sharply colder than today, as a cold fronbt comes through. It may not be quite that cold (24) tomorrow morning, but it could be that cold by tomorrow night around midnight. Then, some clouds will begin to build ahead of a storm system, and the temperatures will not drop much after midnight.

Thursday night-Friday looks like a snow to rain to snow system. A lot of trucks have been brining the roads because of this snow threat on a holiday. However, I don't think much of this storm, and think any accumulation will be minor.

There is yet another chance for a winter storm early next week, but it is too soon to tell the precip type...

After the Tuesday storm goes through, we could be headed towards a deep freeze. The CPC says that temperatures will be at least 15 degrees below average over that period...

Alex C.

Monday, December 29th, 2008: 4pm

Big question in this forecast is the storm forecast for New Year's Day and Friday. The question will be the temperatures and the moisture values, as this will dictate the type of precipitation that falls. Other than that, we will have a calm next week.

Alex C.

Saturday, December 27, 2008: 8pm

The SPC indicates that the area has a 30% of seeing damaging winds of >58mph...also, there is a 2% chance of a tornado. Watch may be issued soon...

Alex C.

Saturday, December 27, 2008: 7pm

A new weather watch may be issued for parts of the area as a line of now severe storms approach. The SPC says that damaging winds and isolated tornadoes could occur in the highlighted area. More updates will come as needed...

Alex C.

Friday, December 26th, 2008: 12pm

Update...slight risk of severe weather for Saturday is in the same position it was yesterday. Expect some storms late tomorrow, and maybe some isolated severe weather...

My big Christmas present yesterday was a Nikon CoolPix digital camera...so from now on, during severe weather, there will be my pictures on this blog!!!

Alex C.

Christmas Day 2008: 4pm

Merry Christmas to everyone!!!

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms remains off to the west for Saturday. This is because the system may actually slow down, and not reach the area until Saturday night. However, look for 2 straight days in the 60s on Friday and Saturday. There will be widespread rain Friday morning and late Saturday. Full update tomorrow...

Alex C.

Christmas Eve 2008: 3:30pm

The deluge is over...

The rain amount at my house for this storm was 2.5"!!! The rain was extremely heavy for parts of this morning. However, the rain has stopped, and we will remain dry through Friday.

A very average winter day is on tap for Christmas Day tomorrow, with a high of 42 and a low of 30.

The next big story is the next system, coming in on Friday-Saturday. Friday will be only a rain event, but Saturday could bring severe weather to the area.

The SPC has a severe risk west of I-65 for Saturday. With warmth in place, there is a possibility of a broken squall line of thunderstorms, which could produce damaging winds. The SPC says that this storm "has ramifications for a widespread severe weather event for [Saturday].

This is certainly something to keep an eye on...

However, don't worry about the storms now...enjoy Christmas and all that comes with it!!!

Merry Christmas!!!

Alex C.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008: 6pm

Freezing rain to end soon...

Any freezing rain that is occurring at this time will soon change over to all rain. Wind will also pick up in intensity overnight into tomorrow morning. Rain will continue through early tomorrow afternoon. Around 1 inch can be expected over the area, with some higher amounts possible.

Christmas Day looks dry, with average highs around 40. Christmas night clouds will be on the increase, and temps will not drop that much.

Friday, and especially Saturday, could turn out being quite interesting. Friday will include some rain through the afternoon. Temps will warm into the middle 50s, and will not drop much through the night.

The SPC actually predicts that we will have highs in the upper 60s on Saturday, with dewpoints approaching 60. They also say that a severe weather event is suspected to occur on Saturday for parts of our area.

This seems a bit far-fetched to predict 4 days ahead of time in December, but nevertheless, something to keep an eye on...

Alex C.

Monday, December 22nd, 2008: 5:30pm

Will ice impact your Christmas plans?

The simple answer is...not for long. There will be a brief period of ice tomorrow, but any accumulation will be quite minor...more of a nuisance. Most of the precip will be rain, beginning tomorrow night and into Christmas Eve. However, with all of the cold air in place now, we will see some icy precip tomorrow, but it should not last long with warm air rushing in from the south. A track slightly more to the east will bring more significant ice, so this forecast is not a guarantee. However, I expect any ice accumulations to be minor.

It will be quite windy on Tuesday night into Christmas Eve, with some gusts to 45mph. Rain and warmer temps will return Friday and Saturday.

Alex C.

Saturday, December 20th, 2008: 10am

For a weekend update, here's some headlines for the next 7 days...

• 50% chance of light rain/snow tonight...no accumulation
• Chance of flurries tomorrow, temps drop all day
• Temps Sunday night-Monday morning in single digits, approaching 5 degrees in some areas.
• Wind Chills in single digits Sunday with below 0 wind chills after dark and towards Monday morning.
• Wintry mix changing to rain for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Alex C.

Friday, December 19, 2008: 5pm

Needless to say, no one expected the warm temps that we experienced earlier today...Louisville broke a record by reaching 68!!! I never thought the clouds would clear and I thought the rain would linger, keeping temps in the 40s, but I was VERY wrong!

Anyway, I'm pretty certain about a rain event tomorrow late afternoon/evening, and flurries on Sunday.

I'm going to hold on to hope for one more day that there might be a white Christmas. However, a huge surge of warm air is now projected (by computer models) to reach our area Tuesday, meaning all rain. We will have to see, but if the models continue to show this, that will be that there won't be a white Christmas and that I will take the snow chance out of the forecast.

Alex C.

Thursday, December 18, 2008: 6pm

Rain tonight and tomorrow...

The rain tonight and tomorrow will be heavy at times, and thus, we could receive around 1" of rain for most of the region.

There will be more rain late Saturday afternoon, changing to non-accumulating snow on Saturday night-Sunday morning.

The big story that you will be hearing about for the next week is the potential Christmas Eve storm. Right now, it is way too early to call anything, but simply for the timing of the storm, I will put this storm in CODE ORANGE. The big question is if there will be rain or snow (or a mix). I will ride the fence for now, but with too systems bringing cold air over the next 3 days, there may be enough cold air to support a white Christmas...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008: 5pm

Heavy rain possible over the next 5 days...

The HPC indicates that over the next 5 days (particularly tomorrow and Friday), we could receive 1.5-2" of rain. The best chance of heavy rain would be tomorrow night through noon Friday. Scattered precip will prevail otherwise.

Another storm will approach on Saturday night, bringing the area a slight chance of rain/snow.

The most interesting storm will come on Wednesday, Christmas Eve. This storm is expected to be larger than the storm that just past us on Monday-Tuesday. The question will be what type of precipitation we will receive. With cold air in place, there is at least the potential for winter precipitation...

Alex C.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008: 1pm

The "storm" is over...

This will be my last post until tomorrow...the winter weather has for the most part ended....

The forecast above was made today, not 12/12/08, as it says. You can see just how busy I've been tracking the "storm"; I haven't had a forecast on the blog in 4 days!!!

Anyway, no one really got this storm completely figured out. The GFS computer model was the closest to being correct. As to who was most accurate out of our four local TV stations, the most accurate was...no one! No TV station exactly figured this storm out. This time I really thought I had the forecast that would be most accurate, but yes, I failed as well...

It is worthy to note now that we could have a storm on early Friday morning (overnight Thursday).

There is growing confidence in a storm coming in on Christmas Eve/Day. The question would be what type of precip would fall. That's still a long way out, but something to look forward to.

Alex C.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008: 9am

BUST!!!

It is official: my forecast was off by about 40 miles, and that made all the difference in the world. The 2-5 inch amounts can be found in Bulliett, Hardin, Spencer, and Franklin counties in Kentucky, with significant ice and 1-3 inch snows south of that (I was right on that, at least).

However, southern Indiana is left on the very short end of the stick with this system...We have received just about nothing so far. Will we see anything? It appears that the worst of the weather will be just to our south. However, we could still pick up to 1" of snow in some areas.

The worst part is that as a warm front moves north late this morning and into the afternoon. This will drag precip to the north for the late morning and afternoon. However, this precip will fall as sleet and freezing rain. We could see up to .2" of freezing rain and light sleet accumulations as well.

So, it is not the snowstorm that I expected along the Ohio River, just south was the main show.

Will post again (if needed) as 1pm...

Alex C.

Monday, December 15, 2008: 9:30pm

Hmm...where's the snow?

Well, current forecasts show that it will develop and move into our area after midnight. The NWS says from 5am-1pm tomorrow will be the best time frame for snow.

This does not mean that there will be less accumulation, even though there still is the potential of less snow then forecasted originally. If the NWS is right, then it would appear that the snow amounts would not be as high and the sleet/freezing rain totals would be higher regionwide.

If you look at a radar now, it would appear that we will get nothing. However, another band is expected to develop behind this one. Hopefully this is not a bust, because it will make all the meteorologists look bad (and I hate when that happens).

Will post in the morning (8-9am), when there is sure to be another change in the forecast...

Alex C.

Monday, December 15, 2008: 5pm

There are my thoughts on each portion of the area.

The winter storm warning is now in effect until 7pm tomorrow, so the weather will continue to be relentless until then. I expect school closings tomorrow and possibly Wednesday...

NWS seems to agree with my prediction for along the Ohio River, however, they have less accumulations in southern Indiana.

Next post will be 8:30-9pm...

Alex C.

Monday, December 15, 2008: 1:15pm

Quick update...

All warnings remain in effect until 7am Tuesday; however, I'm thinking because of the cold temps expected tomorrow morning/afternoon, they may need to extend the warning expiration time.

My amount/precip type prediction remains the same as the last post...

I watched some TV weather (imagine that) at noon, and found that I am most in agreement with WLKY 32 at this time...

One last note...with the harshness of the cold behind this system, some models are now predicting greater snow amounts because the temps will be too cold for ice/sleet. I will continue watching the temps, but for now, my precip amounts remain the same (see last post)...

Next post just after 4pm...

Alex C.

Monday, December 15, 2008: 10am

WINTER STORM WARNING...

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the area from noon today-7am Tuesday.

Rain this morning will end gradually in a period of light freezing rain around noon. A cold front with significantly colder temps behind it will contribute to a flash freeze of rain on grass and untreated roadways.

The main event will be tonight and into Tuesday morning. A secondary storm will approach, and bring a mixed bag of precipitation into the area. Here is my opinion on what will happen for this storm...

• There will be a band of heavier snow that sets up within 50 miles of the Ohio River on either side. My current thought is that it will set up and effect the counties bordering the Ohio River in Indiana and Kentucky. Thus, I expect these areas to pick up 2-4 inches of snow tonight-Tuesday morning. Also, you will see a small coating of freezing rain in this area, with accumulations less than .1".
• North of this area in southern Indiana and south of this area in northcentral Kentucky, expect freezing rain accumulations around .1", and snow amounts to be anywhere from 1-3 inches.
• Along and south of a line from Leitchfield to E'town to Bardstown, you will likely see up to .25" inch of ice.

This is my opinion, but as I have said before, there are many others out there because of the possibility of the system straying from it's projected path. However, this is my prediction, and as always, it is subject to change! :)

Next post will be between 1-2pm...

Alex C.

Sunday, December 14, 2008: 8pm

STORM ALERT!!!!

I am now officially in storm alert mode...for an explanation of storm alert mode, see previous post.

We are in a slight risk of having at least .25" of ice.

The slight risk for 4 inches of snow has moved to the east...

As mentioned before, rain will begin tonight and continue through Monday morning. At midday Monday, temperatures will begin to sharply drop to the freezing mark, freezing all the rain and causing slick roadways. This will also cause any rain to change to LIGHT freezing rain.

The real show looks to be tomorrow night-Tuesday morning. A mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow will occur. Tomorrow morning, I will try to pin down exactly what locations will see what precipitation. Tomorrow by 10am, I will do a post of my storm expectations.

As usual, there are many opinions on this storm...some say barely any ice, while others say an ice massacre over Louisville, while others say 1/2 foot of snow! That's why I am waiting until the morning to attempt to make a call on this system.

There is already a winter storm warning in effect for the Paducah/Evansville forecast area. Their warning states: "WIDESPREAD ICING IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ALOW END OF ABOUT 1/4 INCH OF ICE...TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3/4 INCHES OF ICE."

We will see what will come of this storm. I can't tell you how many opinions are floating around out there, so read the blog Monday morning and see what I have to say then...

Alex C.

Sunday, December 14, 2008: 8am

Not going into storm alert mode quite yet with this storm; however, later today, I may go into storm alert mode. The only differences about storm alert mode is more frequent posts and only posts on the storm at hand. Also, occasional e-mails will be sent to blog followers and others to alert them of the weather and that I have published a ground-breaking post.

Back to the weather now. The same holds the same as did yesterday. The NWS has issued a wind advisory for the area, in effect until midnight tonight. The sustained winds will be 15-30mph, with gusts from 40-45 mph.

Rain could be scattered about tonight, and maybe early this morning as well. Rain will increase overnight tonight into Monday. Temps will fall behind the cold front on Monday, making our Monday highs in the morning hours. By afternoon, the area will slowly have a transition from rain to freezing rain.

With a secondary system coming in behind this first, we will get more precip on Monday night and into Tuesday morning. This precip will be in the form of sleet, snow, and freezing rain, all dependent on where you live in our area.

Thus, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of our area for Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning. They state that significant ice and snow accumulations are possible.

It is very hard to pinpoint exactly who will get what precip, so stay tuned for further updates. Here is the HPC map for potential of 4 inches of snow. The northern most part of southern Indiana is in a slight (10% or >) potential of 4 inches of snow. This risk goes through Cincinnati and southern Ohio as well.


The .25" freezing rain potential map has undergone some changes, however.

From Louisville and points to the southwest, there is a 40% or > chance of .25" inch of freezing rain, with the original 10% or > risk over the rest of the area.

For reference, .25" inch of freezing rain is bad enough for a Winter Storm Warning to be issued. Amounts of ice (freezing rain) from .25-.5", with isolated .75" inch over New England put 1.3 million out of power, so this is a serious situation.

My next post will be later this evening (probably 7-8pm)...

Alex C.

Saturday, December 13, 2008: 6pm

Correction: 7-day forecast made on 12-13-08.

A wind advisory is in effect from 7am-7pm tomorrow. Winds will be sustained between 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph. This will be the most severe winds we have had since Hurricane Ike.

For the discussion on the storm on Monday-Tuesday, read the discussion below in the previous post...

Accuweather Christmas Day forecast: Snow with a high of 40 and low of 29.

My next update on this storm will be tomorrow morning...

Alex C.

Saturday, December 13, 2008: 11am

Special weekend posts with impending winter storm...

Tomorrow, in advance of a storm system, south winds will increase greatly. The NWS says there will be a wind advisory issued for tomorrow. Tomorrow night, rain will begin and carry through most of Monday. However, with temps falling through the day on Monday, by Monday night, temps will be falling into the 30s.

With this storm system in place, rain will change to freezing rain and snow. This will continue into Tuesday as well. The HPC says that there is a >10% chance that central Indiana will see at least 4 inches of snow.



Also, the HPC says that all of our area is in a 10% or greater potential of at least a quarter inch of freezing rain accumulation.


Check back for more updates later on this weekend with this rapidly changing weather situation...

Alex C.

Friday, December 12, 2008: 6pm

This forecast is going to be quite a tricky one...

Sunday will be quite breezy, with winds over 30 mph possible. Then on Monday, we will have some heavy rain. With the passage of the cold front, the temps will drop. The rain will turn to freezing rain, sleet, and snow for Monday night-Tuesday. We will have to see if the storm is strong enough. The NWS says that we could have "significant snow/ice accumulations". Stay tuned...

Accuweather Christmas Day Forecast: Partly sunny and very cold. High 28 and low 21.

Alex C.

Thursday, December 11, 2008: 5pm

There are many opinions to this system tonight and tomorrow, but my thought is that there will be no accumulation. This storm is just tracking too far east for us to get any substancial amount of snow.

As to early next week, the forecast is up in the air. Some forecasts have snow, some have rain. However, based on the weather pattern currently set up, I will forecast that the majority of the precip Monday-Tuesday will be rain.

Accuweather's Christmas Day forecast is partial sunshine. High of 53 and low of 36.

Alex C.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008: 5pm

The only big weather story we have right now is the fact that the HPC believes there is a 10% or greater chance that Louisville and points southward will receive 4 inches of snow tomorrow night and into Friday. This simply will not happen, but it is still interesting (see HPC map below).



A nice weekend will be followed up by a chance of significant rain yet again early next week.

The first Christmas forecast comes out from Accuweather tomorrow. I will report each Accuweather Christmas forecast from here until Christmas Eve to see how accurate Accuweather is...

Alex C.

Tuesday, December 9th, 2008: 8pm

After the roughly one inch of rain we had today, we could get another inch after midnight tonight. The high you see for tomorrow will be at midnight, and may be higher than 45. Temperatures and fall, and we will see a mix of snow and sleet after about 4-6am. No accumulations are expected.

Alex C.

Monday, December 8th, 2008: 6pm

Heavy rain can be expected at times tomorrow, with possible thunder. The HPC says that we could have up to 1.5" of rain tomorrow.

Temperatures will turn sharply colder after the front moves through. The high Wednesday of 45 will be at midnight, with the low, 31, coming about noon on Wednesday. Winds will pick up from the north on Wednesday as well.

With our pattern of storm systems every 3-4 days, I will put in a small rain chance for Saturday...

Alex C.

Friday, December 5th, 2008: 5pm

Still thinking up to 1" of snow tomorrow. Many stations are not picking up on this system, stating just flurries, but I will stick to my forecast and see if the snow sticks along with it.

A storm system, bringing a wintry mix will arrive Tuesday morning and last through Wednesday morning. A very cold end to next week will follow this system.

Alex C.

Thursday, December 4th, 2008: 6:30pm

Correction: Thursday should read high of 28 and
low of 17.

I apologize for the mistake...it's when being in a hurry and not thinking straight combine... :)

A cold spell is definitely setting up over our area...

I still think we could get a very small snow accumulation on Saturday (<>

Tuesday needs to be watched for some wintry precip as well, but it it too far out to predict...

The end of next week could be extremely cold, beginning with Thursday. The forecast should read a high of 28 and a low of 17 (correction above).


Alex C.

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008: 5pm

I apologize for not posting yesterday...a neighbor was having some work done on her house, and the workers cut a phone line...no internet for a day!!!

Anyway, tomorrow will be breezy...it will be cloudy and the morning with some sun in the afternoon. Wind chills will be near 30 during the day...

I see a chance of an accumulating snow on Saturday, maybe up to 1" in southern Indiana. It's not much, but it's something...

We are settling into a cool but active pattern, so expect to see precip every 3 days or so, with temps mainly around 40.

We are now only 22 days until Christmas...the countdown is on!

Alex C.