More Craziness

Here you go:

• Rain and Storms between now and 10am Tuesday
• Changes to wind and snow Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday morning
• light snow with up to 2 inches accumulation!

Aftermath

This storm was pretty significant in the way it iced things over.

It was so big and effective that it does not need pictures. It affected everyone and everyone already knows what it looks like and felt like!!!

Still a bad scene, with possible "freezing fog" tonight!

Quick Morning Update

An Ice Storm Warning is in effect from 1pm today until 9am Friday morning for the entire southern Indiana and northcentral Kentucky areas, including Louisville.

What to expect:

• 1pm: Precipitation begins as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain
• 4pm: Transition to all freezing rain, total snow/sleet accumulation: 1 inch southern Indiana, less than 1 inch Kentucky.
• 5-9pm: Heavy Freezing Rain possible
• 9pm-9am: Freezing Rain continues, total freezing rain accumulation 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with isolated amounts to 3/4 inches.

A big mess on the way; expect school closings.

The breakdown is below, use the blue as an indicator of sleet/freezing rain!

breakdown

Here is the official breakdown of the storm system tomorrow into Friday!

I do have one disagreement with this breakdown. I think the snow will go over to frozen precipitation much sooner than this model shows.

Right now, I'm thinking over southern Indiana, about 1 inch of snow and sleet, topped of by 1/4 inch of ice during the evening. Of course, there is no guarantee that this is right, but it is my thinking for now!

As you can see, it will end as rain on Friday!

Complete warnings and advisories breakdown in the morning. There is a winter storm watch from 2pm Thursday to 2pm friday for the entire area, but this will be upgraded in the early morning!

Snow, Ice, and Road Conditions

First, the snow that is coming tonight is an alberta clipper! A snow advisory is in effect for southeast indiana and northeast Kentucky tonight where 1-2 inches is likely! heres the breakdown starting at 10pm tonight until 10 am tomorrow (in 3 hour increments).

A storm getting more hype is the Thursday/Friday ice storm, which would effect road conditions drastically.

Well, the National weather service says lots of ice over our area Thursday and Friday. There's no watches for this yet, but evansville and paducah have a winter storm watch in effect for 2-4 inches of snow and more than .25 inches of ice! clearly something to watch!

A strange system, however. some models have us running into a snowstorm and then an ice storm. Others describe an icy mess. However, mark weinberg, as of tuesday, said something completely different.

Alex, I have to disagree on the this storm. I think it will start with sleet/fz rain, but I sincerely think it will end up as a rain maker more than anything else.

We will just have to wait and see! I'm taking Mark's advice for now, but the NWS is presenting a convincing argument!

Okay, maybe I just want some snow!

HMM?

Some snow is coming towards our area, and it could be an interesting week!

The snow today was intermittent and didn't bring accumulation, but it did bring a bit of reduced visibility.

tuesday night an alberta clipper will move through the area. Through noon on Wednesday, an inch or so of snow could fall over southern Indiana. There is a possibility of a bit more, but not making a big deal on this one!

Now, on Thursday and Friday, a strong storm will rush through the area. The storm will bring widespread precipitation, but the type is unknown. Here is this from the NWS:

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK OF THE FORECAST THEN COMES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE BIG BEND REGION NORTHEAST TO AROUND WEST VIRGINIA.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE THANKS TO DEEP MOIST FLOWFROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT.

SOUNDINGS SHOW A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH PERHAPS JUST THE FAR SOUTH ESCAPING WITH PLAIN RAIN.

IT IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...BUT THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH.

Way too early to call any amounts, but will keep an eye on it!

Weird Weather

there is some mighty strange weather heading our way!

Showers and storms will erupt in the morning, then temperaturew will soar to near 65 with winds to 40 mph.

Later in the evening, the storms will roll back in, with possibly a severe wind gust or two.

Then, snow showers will take over all day of Monday, with an inch or two of snow possible.

1. Morning Storms
2. Afternoon Warmth
3. Windy Afternoon
4. Evening Storms
5. Heavy Rain Likely
6. Cold Front comes through
7. Snow showers on Monday
8. 1-2 inches likely

While my computer was down, there was a winter storm, with lots of ice!

Just the updated information on the storms on Tuesday. Here are some links for information on specific tornadoes:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=12817&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=february5-6,2008outbreak

Last Night

The first thing to speak of would be the storm reports from last night. There were 3 tornadoes in the north-central Kentucky area. Preliminary data on these tornadoes can be found here!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=12817&source=0

There was and EF-2 tornado in Hardin county, KY, right near Elizabethtown, in Cecilia! Winds were up to 115mph!

Storm reports from yesterday in the country were absolutely of the charts, and out the roof for february.

If you can read that, you will see that there were 78 tornado reports, 220 damaging wind reports (winds over 58mph), 2 destructive wind reports (wind over 75mph), 119 large hail reports (hail >.75 in. diameter), and 12 destructive hail reports (hail >1.75 in. diameter).

A bad day to say the least. Number of fatalities is 21 from the Storm Prediction Center, to as high as 50 by NBC WeatherPlus.

8:30 P.M. Radar/Warnings

Super Tuesday 2

6:00 pm update:





Storm Prediction Center current forecasts:



Moderate risk for our area tonight!





15% chance of tornadoes






45% chance for damaging winds



15% chance of damaging hail

These storms will be coming through the area between 9pm and 2am. We could have a few big rounds of storms.




Round one would be those storms ahead of the line that are beginning to develop and will continue to develop. Those can produce damaging tornadoes.

Round two would be the long line behind that! There are some tornadoes in that line as well, but by the time it gets here, the threat will be more of damaging winds, but still a threat of "weaker tornadoes."

Super Tuesday

6:30 am:

Here are the latest probabilities for the severe weather outbreak today.


Mark Weinberg said he would not be surprised if we saw a moderate risk pushed into our area today, but I think the reason they are keeping us out for now is that the storms will come around
midnight.


Threat of tornadoes: 10%

Threat of Wind

Threat of Hail

Super Bowl Sunday and Super Severe Tuesday

Would you believe it if the Giants beat the undefeated Patriots in todays super bowl?

Would you believe it if Huckabee won the the New York Republican Primary? Would you believe it if there was another severe weather outbreak in the winter this week?

This is Monday's severe weather outlook!

Well, by the looks of that it seems as if there really isn't much of a chance of severe weather on Monday for us and that i'm overplaying it! Now check out Tuesday's severe weather oulook!

The threats in this storm will be yet again, very severe winds, and some tornadoes!

Stay tuned for more on this big storm...

Severe Weather is Back!

WE may yet again experience some winter severe weather in our area. Here is the outlook.

Meanwhile, Super Bowl XLII is tomorrow at 6pm between the 14-5 New York Giants and the 18-0 New England Patriots!