Monday

No forecast changes today...tonight will be a great night to get out and enjoy, as I will be playing golf tonight...

Alex C.

Blown Forecast

Last night's storms were obviously a blown forecast...SPC had us in a MODERATE risk and nothing ever happened.

This is primarily because the line to our east took up some of the energy and ushered in dry air behind the line, which rushed into our area...

It was a great night for a cookout and fireworks, though...

The week ahead:

Today-Monday: Isolated showers and storms
Tuesday-Wednesday: No hazards
Thursday-Saturday: Scattered storms

4:20pm

No new news from the SPC at all; still saying storms are developing, and that signigicant and widespread wind damage continues...

Severe Storm Watches are still in effect until 9pm for southern Indiana and central Kentucky...

Going to a cookout at 5:30pm and fireworks at 8pm...will try to post as much as possible at the cookout site...PLEASE WATCH TV WEATHER SOURCES AND OTHER BLOGS FOR MORE INFO!

Saturday 4:15pm

No severe storms as of yet...SPC says in an MD:

LINE SEGMENTS WILL TEND TO MATURE...LINE-UP PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW REGIME...THEN BOW GIVING DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WLY MID-LEVEL JET...NAMELY FROM NRN KY/SRN IND NWD INTO OH...WV AND PA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

I will post on the new SPC forecast momentarily...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #630 until 9pm EDT

A new severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 9pm EDT for the following outlined areas in the map below:



This includes some of southern Indiana, Louisville, and the rest of north central Kentucky...

Hail to 2 in. in diameter and winds to 80mph are possible in the watch area...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #629 until 8pm

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 8pm EDT for a few counties in our area north and northeast of Louisville, see map below:

With this watch, expect hail to 2 in. in diameter and wind gusts to 80mph...

Expect a watch for Louisville later on in the day...

CODE PURPLE!

We now have a code purple!

Property damage is very possible this afternoon!

The storm prediction center has put us in a moderate risk of severe storms. Their statement is below:

SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO LINES AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE-UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AND COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.



With the substancial amount to sun this morning, temps in the 80's and dewpoints near 70, storms should quickly develop this afternoon. Mid level winds are very strong as well...

From the SPC: We have a 2% chance of tornadoes, 15% chance of hail >3/4 in., and 45% chance of winds >58mph, and 30% chance of winds >75mph within 25 miles of a point.

If there was a tornado, it would most likely be in the early stages of storm development, which is early to mid afternoon.

A severe thunderstorm watch will be out soon from the SPC for the following area:



This includes all of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

This is a potentially dangerous situation...and I will post as the afternoon goes on...

Yesterday's Storm Reports and Today's Storm Risk

Here are some storm reports from yesterday:

9:15 HUNTINGBURG DUBOIS IN TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN CITY

9:15 70 mph TASWELL CRAWFORD IN

9:40 FRENCH LICK ORANGE IN SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND FRENCH LICK AND PAOLI

9:42 60mph FERDINAND DUBOIS IN

9:56 70mph 1 E CURBY CRAWFORD IN

10:15 CORYDON HARRISON IN NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALL ACROSS THE COUNTY

10:15 NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN POWER LINES DOWN ALONG VILLAGE DRIVE

10:35 LOUISVILLE JEFFERSON KY POWER LINES DOWN ALONG 3RD AND KENWOOD...AS WELL AS ALONG EAST ORMSBY AND MOHAWK

10:40 NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN TREE ON HOUSE ALONG CHARLESTOWN RD...CHARLESTOWN RD CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY TREES

10:40 PROSPECT JEFFERSON KY TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG ROSE ISLAND RD AND CITY LN...ALSO ALONG STATE ROAD 1793 NEAR JEFF/OLDHAM COUNTY LINE

10:50 LOUISVILLE JEFFERSON KY LARGE TREES DOWN ON E. PARKWAY

10:50 BUCKNER OLDHAM KY SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY

As for today:

I have now downgraded the risk for today to a Code Orange in the wake of the most recent SPC outlook. It states that we would have an organized severe weather event if there were not storms ahead of the front this morning, leaving an abundance of clouds, and not much sun.

However, we are seeing some sun right now, with a more widespread area of clearness near the IL/IN border before the next line comes through.

So, the SPC has us in a slight risk for severe: 2% tornadoes, 15% hail, 15% wind.

My opinion is that if we get enough sun, we will see some severe storms with the main threat being damaging winds >58mph.

Heavy rain and lightning will accompany all of the storms...

Later this evening and tonight, storms may develop again with another upper level impulse coming through the area. Some of these storms could produce a damaging wind gust or two...stay tuned for watches and warnings as I update throughout the day.

Torando Warning for Orange county: 9:50pm...

Big line of severe storms to roll through Louisville, southern Indiana, and north central Kentucky between 10pm and 12am...

Summary of warnings below:

Quick note on Saturday: I am going with a code red for Saturday...this line coming through tonight may clear the way for another squall line system tomorrow afternoon...here is the risk area real quick...

Wrap up from tonight's storms and enhanced look at tomorrow coming tomorrow morning...signing off for the night (maybe)...

Alex C.

Friday night 9:45pm

Change of plans:

I will talk about tonights big severe weather, and deal with Saturday immediately in the morning...

Tornado Warning for Orange county until 10pm...severe storms line through the area will produce winds over 60 mph, with some to 80mph...The entire line is severe...watch television for more details...

One last note...

For those who viewed my profile:

I do not know how the astrological signs got turned on...i do not believe in any of that stuff...in fact...I don't know what it means! So they are off for good!

Sorry for the confusing you may have had about me!

See my severe weather thoughts below...

Alex C.

Thursday night

Sorry for the no show from me today...i've been helping out with church camp...

As for the weather:

I had a scary moment in today's storms that should show you why the 30 minute rule is important with lightning:

I had waited 15 minutes after the rain stopped to continue working...and then suddenly a lightning bolt fired out of the back of the storm, striking an estimated 0.2 mi. from where I was. That, of course, brought a huge, ear ringing, cracking rumble through the air...very scary and thrilling moment...

As for Saturday:

It looks like tomorrow I will put us in a code red or possible purple for Saturday...it looks like we could have a rough day...

Current indications show that we could have at least 1 line of severe weather Saturday evening, bringing widespread damaging winds and some large hail...

However, Marc Weinberg said that you cannot make a guess from science yet, meaning that we will have to see how the storm evolves...

From the SPC, we have a 30% chance of severe weather Saturday...that could change tomorrow...

I will have a big update tomorrow night after my camp work...i will get all the sensible info I can for this storm...as well as pics and graphics...

Alex C.

Wednesday afternoon

To all those who are checking out my blog for the first time, welcome...

I am so glad that John Belski linked my blog on his blog...

I am Alex Coffman (on Belski's blog I am "Alex C.") 15 years old, from Borden, IN, and try my best to run a weather blog off of dial-up...because Borden is a wi-fi dead zone...as we say here, you can easily get "bored in Borden"...

Thank you for checking the blog and please continue to check it...

You can leave a comment below or email me at:

hookedonweather@aol.com

Now, I will talk about the weather:

This afternoon through Friday afternoon hold a slight chance of your typical summer afternoon thunderstorms...



Friday night there is a slight risk (15% chance) of severe storms in our area, but I WILL NOT make a big deal out of this one because of the forecasted late night timing (loss of heating)...



Saturday will be a bigger chance of severe weather...we are in the 30% risk as of now...

John Belski had this to say about Saturday's storm in response to my question about Saturday's storm risk...

"if this can get going at peak heating...certainly a squall line and there is enough twist to put a tornado threat."

However, this storm is still 3 days away, so the threat is Code Orange as of now...
(My coding system is listed in Tuesday's post) and I won't change it until there is a moderate risk of severe or a good reason to put out a Code Red...

Our church camp is Sunday-Tuesday:

Sunday-Tuesday look to be mostly rain-free, with temperatures in the middle 80's and dewpoints between 60-65...however; there is a chance of an isolated storm Monday...

I will hopefully get an opinion from Marc Weinberg on Saturday's storm soon...

The Week Ahead

I've tweaked the color system so that it now looks like this:

Green: No hazards (sunny day)
Gold: Minimal impact hazards (stray shower/storm)
Orange: Moderate impact hazards (storms w/heavy rain, lightning, or minimal severe threat)
Red: High impact hazards (greater potential for severe storms)
Purple: Hazards potentially causing damage to property (imminent severe storms/tornadoes)
White: Life threatening hazards (great tornado threat/extremely high wind threat)

Hopefully I won't ever have to use white around here...

Here's the forecast for the week ahead...

Wednesday: Chance of a stray storm
Thursday-Friday: Hot and humid; highs in the 90's and dewpoints in the 60's (uncomfortable range). Reduce outdoor work if possible
Saturday: Risk of severe storms and continuous heavy rain
Sunday: Heavy rain possible in the morning
Monday-Tuesday: No hazards

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Temperatures will be near 90 on Wednesday, lower to mid 90's on Thursday and Friday, falling into the upper 80's for Saturday, and the lower 80's for Sunday-Tuesday.

Humidity will be high Wednesday-Sunday, with lower humidities for the first part of next week...

One more quick note is Saturday...



We are in the 30% chance of severe weather on Saturday from the SPC...

For now, I will keep Saturday as a "Code Orange" until the storm organizes and comes closer...

Storm Central

The next 7 days:

Today and Sunday: Slight risk of severe storms over southern Indiana both days
Monday: Slight chance of storms with gusty winds
Tuesday: No hazards.
Wednesday-Friday: Slight chance of storms with heavy rain and gusty winds

Concerning the slight risks of severe weather today and Sunday:

Neither of the days look very supportive of a severe episode...however, one or two severe storms could pop up in southern Indiana both days...

The best chance of severe weather today will be from 3-9pm in southern Indiana, with additional isolated non-severe storms after midnight...

The best chance of severe weather Sunday will be from 3-9pm in southern Indiana...with additional isolated non-severe storms Monday...

The severe threats are very low, but in case of a severe storm, expect winds to 60 mph, and up to nickel sized hail.

ALL storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and numerous lightning...

Meanwhile, the slightly humid weather this weekend will end briefly for Tuesday, before the heat, humidity, and storm chances go up for the middle to end of next week...

6-16-08 Severe Storm Watch

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the entire area until 5pm EDT.

The best chance of severe weather should be from 12-3pm.

Here are the severe probabilities for this watch from the Storm Prediction Center:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 75 mph
Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

This watch calls for the potential of hail up to baseball sized and winds to 80mph; however, the likelihood of baseball sized hail or 80 mph winds in southern Indiana is quite low...

We will most likely have up to nickel sized hail and maybe winds to 70mph in a severe storm...

One more note is that we will be on the southern edge of the storms, which enhanced the threat of bowing segments, and thus damaging wind gusts....stay tuned...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm

There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area until 9pm. Hail to baseball size and winds to 70mph are possible...best chance of severe is in the evening...

Severe Threat Going Up

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight, and overnight for our entire area.

The SPC has put us in a risk for a 5% tornado threat:

And a 30% chance of damaging winds >58mph:

This afternoon, scattered storms will develop over our area. These will be mostly heavy rain/dangerous lightning producers, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible.

Late tonight as a front comes closer, a better chance of organized wind damage will arrive.

The tornado threat is small, but there is a possibility of a spin up or two.

Make sure to set your weather radios tonight if this system evolves...

So, over our area:

The best time frame for large hail (15%) will be between 3-7pm.

The best time frame for damaging winds will be from 3-7pm, and 10pm-2am.

The best time frame for tornadoes will be from 9pm-12am.

The best time frame for heavy rain and dangerous lightning will be from 12pm-8pm and 9pm-4am...

Friday the Severe 13th

Here's a fun one for you...

Friday the 13th is usually deemed to be a "freaky" day of the year...

And this year, we might have severe weather to go along with it!

The flood waters have been rising in southern and central Indiana, and now more rain...not good! A levee in Daviess Co. Indiana has actually breached and water is pouring into the town!

They don't need anymore rain, but the unflooded places could use rain after this hot weather...so here's a chance.

Friday night there is a slight risk of severe weather for our area. Here are the %'s of severe weather...

So the threat level for the next seven days are:

Wednesday-Thursday: No hazards.

Friday: Slight risk for severe storm potential

Saturday-Sunday: No hazards.

Monday-Tuesday: Chance of rain and storms.

9:30 PM

Just a quick update here...

Moderate risk of severe overnight tonight...10% chance of tornadoes, 30% chance of hail >nickel sized, and 45% damaging winds >58 mph, with possible winds >75mph. (SPC)

I am, however, doubtful about some of this because of the overnight timing. 2-5 am will be our best shot at severe weather, so I doubt we will have winds over 75 mph. There could be a tornado or two, however, and 10% chance is actually pretty high for tornadoes. So, if you have a NOAA Weather Radio, set it to alert mode tonight. If you hear thunder, it would be safe to just turn on your TV and check the happenings! I will set my NOAA Radio to alert me...

One last note...the storms are all north for now, and i'm not sure if they will come south or not...we will see...

Tornado Watch

Risk of Severe Weather: Moderate

Probability of Tornadoes: 15% Salem & north; South: 10%





Probability of Hail > nickel sized: 30%




Probability of Winds >58mph: 45% with significant wind damage outbreak possible.

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A tornado watch is in affect until 7pm for all of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, including Louisville. Above are the projections from the storm prediction center on our possibilities of severe weather.

Some are also predicting another outbreak this evening and tonight, but with no sunlight to bring instability, that will be hard to come by.

There is still no sun at the time...but the moderate risk and tornado watch exist...

stay tuned...

The Week Ahead

The week ahead is going to be a hot and relatively humid one... temperatures all week will range from 87-92.

We will have a few chances for rain and storms:

• Tonight: Small chance for a few showers and storms
• Tuesday: Chance of storms at night; an isolated strong storm possible
• Wednesday: A few more storms, maybe a strong storm or two.
• Friday: More night time storms, strong storms a possibility.

I will be using this color coded system from now on to dictate the seriousness of the hazards:

• Green: Minimal hazard
• Orange: Moderate hazard
• Red: Potentially Serious hazard

Meanwhile the humidity will be going up as well...enjoy summer, because it's here...

That means cut your lawn in the morning and swim in the afternoon...

More on the storm chances will come as needed...