---CAMP LEGACY FORECAST---
All 4 days of camp will be VERY HOT! Campers need to drink lots of water when outdoors.
Temperatures during camp will be in the middle to upper 90's. Dewpoints (humidity) will be in the upper 60's to lower 70s, making heat indexes near 105 at the hottest part of the day.
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Heavy rain for the overnight hours...
We are in a hot and humid rain break for right now. However, late this evening through the overnight hours, and into tomorrow morning, rain is likely over the area. Heavy rain is also a good probability, so 1-2 inches of rain is likely over most areas in southern Indiana and northcentral Kentucky. No severe weather is anticipated, but some storms may be enbedded in the rain overnight tonight.
Tomorrow's highs will be in the raincooled middle 80's.
The heat is back for Friday and Saturday, however, as the temperatures will shoot into the lower 90's on Friday and the middle 90's on Saturday. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60's, heat indexes may reach or exceed 100 on Saturday.
For the rest of the forecast, see the "Camp Legacy" section of the post...
Alex C.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
July 29, 2008: 10pm
---CAMP LEGACY FORECAST---
It is going to be very hot for part of the Camp Legacy period, which could lead to some potential problems. Some computer models and local TV stations are predicting temperatures in the lower 100's Sunday and Monday!!! They are also predicting heat indexes to near 115!!!
However, there is almost no chance that it will be this bad! Nevertheless, it will still be very hot!
Sunday-Monday will be sunny and in the upper 90's with heat indexes approaching 105. Campers will NEED to drink plenty of water when being in outdoor activities.
Tuesday afternoon and especially Wednesday (August 6) have a chance of storms. This will cool the temperatures into the lower to middle 90's, but the humidity will still be high, making heat indexes near 100.
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Heavy rain and then the big heat...
NO SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT!
This event tomorrow afternoon until Thursday morning will be mostly a heavy rain event. Most of the area should get 1-2 inches of rain on average. Some places may get less than 1 inch, but everyone will see rain. Some may also get more than 2 inches if storms train over the same areas. Temps will be in the raincooled lower to middle 80's.
Then, the big heat comes on...Friday should be in the lower 90's with dewpoints around 60 (pleasant).
Saturday begins the excessive heat with temps in the middle 90's, but the dewpoints will stay in the lower 60's for Saturday. That will mean the dewpoints will not get higher than 100. However, that will change for Sunday. That forecast can be read above...
Alex C.
It is going to be very hot for part of the Camp Legacy period, which could lead to some potential problems. Some computer models and local TV stations are predicting temperatures in the lower 100's Sunday and Monday!!! They are also predicting heat indexes to near 115!!!
However, there is almost no chance that it will be this bad! Nevertheless, it will still be very hot!
Sunday-Monday will be sunny and in the upper 90's with heat indexes approaching 105. Campers will NEED to drink plenty of water when being in outdoor activities.
Tuesday afternoon and especially Wednesday (August 6) have a chance of storms. This will cool the temperatures into the lower to middle 90's, but the humidity will still be high, making heat indexes near 100.
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Heavy rain and then the big heat...
NO SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT!
This event tomorrow afternoon until Thursday morning will be mostly a heavy rain event. Most of the area should get 1-2 inches of rain on average. Some places may get less than 1 inch, but everyone will see rain. Some may also get more than 2 inches if storms train over the same areas. Temps will be in the raincooled lower to middle 80's.
Then, the big heat comes on...Friday should be in the lower 90's with dewpoints around 60 (pleasant).
Saturday begins the excessive heat with temps in the middle 90's, but the dewpoints will stay in the lower 60's for Saturday. That will mean the dewpoints will not get higher than 100. However, that will change for Sunday. That forecast can be read above...
Alex C.
Monday, July 28, 2008
July 28, 2008: 10:45pm
---CAMP LEGACY FORECAST---
For weather for the next 5 days scroll down...
Sunday-Tuesday look to be partly cloudy but with plentiful sunshine. Temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90's with heat indexes to near 100.
Wednesday will introduce a chance of thunderstorms, with temperatures around 90.
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Heat strikes...
Tomorrow will be just as forecasted yesterday, in the middle 90's, dewpoints in the lower 70's, and with heat indexes from 100-105. Drink lots of water and Limit your outdoor activities!!! There will also be light winds, so air quality will be poor in urban areas and haze will overspread the region! An air quality alert is in effect for tomorrow...
There will be a slight chance of storms tomorrow night, but this will bring no relief to you during Tuesday afternoon!
Wednesday-Thursday is an interesting time frame because of the remnants of Hurricane Dolly moving into a very hot and humid environment. Temperatures will be near 90 on Wednesday, but with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70's (VERY OPPRESSIVE), heat indexes will be nearing 100 in some places. This will also be the fuel for numerous thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.
The SPC has put us in a 15% chance of severe weather for Wednesday...saying:
"A BELT OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN STRONGER STORMS."
This may be a bit aggressive, but I will check with my sources and we will keep a close eye on Wednesday. I do think there is a potential for some severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.
This will also be the potential for a soaking rain lasting into Thursday. Thursday highs will be in the rain cooled lower-mid 80's with high humidities. There will be off and on periods of heavy rain and storms Wed. & Thurs. with amounts expected from 1-2 inches in some places through Wednesday-Thursday.
I will post again tomorrow considering this very interesting weather situation on Wednesday-Thursday...
Meanwhile, Friday-Saturday look dry by heating up again. The temps will be in lower 90's and dewpoints in the mid 60's. That is not oppressive, but is still noticeable.
Alex C.
For weather for the next 5 days scroll down...
Sunday-Tuesday look to be partly cloudy but with plentiful sunshine. Temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90's with heat indexes to near 100.
Wednesday will introduce a chance of thunderstorms, with temperatures around 90.
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Heat strikes...
Tomorrow will be just as forecasted yesterday, in the middle 90's, dewpoints in the lower 70's, and with heat indexes from 100-105. Drink lots of water and Limit your outdoor activities!!! There will also be light winds, so air quality will be poor in urban areas and haze will overspread the region! An air quality alert is in effect for tomorrow...
There will be a slight chance of storms tomorrow night, but this will bring no relief to you during Tuesday afternoon!
Wednesday-Thursday is an interesting time frame because of the remnants of Hurricane Dolly moving into a very hot and humid environment. Temperatures will be near 90 on Wednesday, but with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70's (VERY OPPRESSIVE), heat indexes will be nearing 100 in some places. This will also be the fuel for numerous thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.
The SPC has put us in a 15% chance of severe weather for Wednesday...saying:
"A BELT OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN STRONGER STORMS."
This may be a bit aggressive, but I will check with my sources and we will keep a close eye on Wednesday. I do think there is a potential for some severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.
This will also be the potential for a soaking rain lasting into Thursday. Thursday highs will be in the rain cooled lower-mid 80's with high humidities. There will be off and on periods of heavy rain and storms Wed. & Thurs. with amounts expected from 1-2 inches in some places through Wednesday-Thursday.
I will post again tomorrow considering this very interesting weather situation on Wednesday-Thursday...
Meanwhile, Friday-Saturday look dry by heating up again. The temps will be in lower 90's and dewpoints in the mid 60's. That is not oppressive, but is still noticeable.
Alex C.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
July 27, 2008: 7:45pm
---CAMP LEGACY FORECAST---
I can not help but being excited for summer youth camp coming up August 3-6. Many people from this camp will come to the blog looking for this forecast. For this reason, the beginning of every day's post will begin with the CAMP LEGACY FORECAST. For the rest of the forecast for the next 6 days, please scroll down...
Sunday, August 3: Mostly sunny with a high of 93 and a low of 72.
Monday, August 4: Mostly sunny with a high of 92 and a low of 74.
Tuesday, August 5: Partly cloudy with a high of 95 and a low of 76.
Wednesday, August 6: Partly sunny with a 20% storm chance. High of 94 and a low of 75.
Now remember, the chance of this forecast being exactly right is very small, so keep checking back here at the blog every night for a new Camp Legacy forecast update...
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A midsummer nightmare...
Tomorrow and Tuesday will bring a HEAT WAVE into our area. The temperatures will not be records, but the dewpoints will be out the roof. Monday will have temperatures in the lower to middle 90's, but with dewpoints nearing 70 in the late afternoon, the heat indexes will be from 97-102 across the entire area depending on the temperature and dewpoint.
Just when you think it CAN'T get worse, it will on Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the middle 90's, with even a few spots getting into the upper 90's. However, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70's, this will feel much hotter and oppressive. Heat indexes will be from 100-105 degrees on Tuesday.
Notice that the storm chance is gone for Monday and Tuesday. Along with this, the winds will be down, so haze will cover the sky, especially over urbanized areas. This will cause terrible air quality for the sensitive, so AIR QUALITY ALERTS will most likely be issued for Monday and Tuesday.
However, the storm chance will return for Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of Hurricane Dolly will sweep through the area, giving us a relatively good chance of heavy rain from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. 1-2 inches of rain is possible, along with some gusty winds.
Before it hits, however, temperatures on Wednesday will rise to near or just above 90. With extremely high humidities, some places may see heat indices rise to near 100. Thursday will be very humid but the the rain cooled middle 80's.
Thus, Monday-Wednesday afternoon are in a CODE ORANGE for excessive heat and humidity, while Wednesday late afternoon-Thursday night are in a code orange for the potential for heavy rainfall.
Friday-Saturday will be drying out with average late July conditions. Temperatures will still run in the upper 80's to near 90, but the oppressive humidities will leave for the time being.
Alex C.
I can not help but being excited for summer youth camp coming up August 3-6. Many people from this camp will come to the blog looking for this forecast. For this reason, the beginning of every day's post will begin with the CAMP LEGACY FORECAST. For the rest of the forecast for the next 6 days, please scroll down...
Sunday, August 3: Mostly sunny with a high of 93 and a low of 72.
Monday, August 4: Mostly sunny with a high of 92 and a low of 74.
Tuesday, August 5: Partly cloudy with a high of 95 and a low of 76.
Wednesday, August 6: Partly sunny with a 20% storm chance. High of 94 and a low of 75.
Now remember, the chance of this forecast being exactly right is very small, so keep checking back here at the blog every night for a new Camp Legacy forecast update...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A midsummer nightmare...
Tomorrow and Tuesday will bring a HEAT WAVE into our area. The temperatures will not be records, but the dewpoints will be out the roof. Monday will have temperatures in the lower to middle 90's, but with dewpoints nearing 70 in the late afternoon, the heat indexes will be from 97-102 across the entire area depending on the temperature and dewpoint.
Just when you think it CAN'T get worse, it will on Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the middle 90's, with even a few spots getting into the upper 90's. However, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70's, this will feel much hotter and oppressive. Heat indexes will be from 100-105 degrees on Tuesday.
Notice that the storm chance is gone for Monday and Tuesday. Along with this, the winds will be down, so haze will cover the sky, especially over urbanized areas. This will cause terrible air quality for the sensitive, so AIR QUALITY ALERTS will most likely be issued for Monday and Tuesday.
However, the storm chance will return for Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of Hurricane Dolly will sweep through the area, giving us a relatively good chance of heavy rain from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. 1-2 inches of rain is possible, along with some gusty winds.
Before it hits, however, temperatures on Wednesday will rise to near or just above 90. With extremely high humidities, some places may see heat indices rise to near 100. Thursday will be very humid but the the rain cooled middle 80's.
Thus, Monday-Wednesday afternoon are in a CODE ORANGE for excessive heat and humidity, while Wednesday late afternoon-Thursday night are in a code orange for the potential for heavy rainfall.
Friday-Saturday will be drying out with average late July conditions. Temperatures will still run in the upper 80's to near 90, but the oppressive humidities will leave for the time being.
Alex C.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
July 26, 2008: 8:45pm
Tomorrow will be dry!!!
There is no chance of rain for tomorrow afternoon, so temps will rise into the lower 90's. However, tomorrow night, a 20% chance of storms must be introduced, because of approaching systems and dewpoints in the middle 60's.
Interesting mid-week with the computer models. Some take us to 100 degrees on Tuesday & Wednesday, while some bring the remnents of Hurricane Dolly through our area...
I will stick with a 20-30% chance of storms every afternoon and evening of the next work week. Highs will be in the 88-93 degree range, and dewpoints will be in the middle to upper 60's. There will be humidity, but not overly oppressive.
However, with this unpredictible mid week forecast, this is SUBJECT TO CHANGE!
Alex C.
There is no chance of rain for tomorrow afternoon, so temps will rise into the lower 90's. However, tomorrow night, a 20% chance of storms must be introduced, because of approaching systems and dewpoints in the middle 60's.
Interesting mid-week with the computer models. Some take us to 100 degrees on Tuesday & Wednesday, while some bring the remnents of Hurricane Dolly through our area...
I will stick with a 20-30% chance of storms every afternoon and evening of the next work week. Highs will be in the 88-93 degree range, and dewpoints will be in the middle to upper 60's. There will be humidity, but not overly oppressive.
However, with this unpredictible mid week forecast, this is SUBJECT TO CHANGE!
Alex C.
Friday, July 25, 2008
July 25, 2008: 7:15pm
The weather made easy...
Here's the deal: For the next 7 days there will be isolated thunderstorms in the area (20-30% coverage). Temperatures for all 7 days will be in the mid to upper 80's with dewpoints in the 60-65 degree range.
The SPC has a 5% chance of severe for the entire area Saturday and Sunday, but no big deal as I think these storms will be isolated.
Alex C.
Here's the deal: For the next 7 days there will be isolated thunderstorms in the area (20-30% coverage). Temperatures for all 7 days will be in the mid to upper 80's with dewpoints in the 60-65 degree range.
The SPC has a 5% chance of severe for the entire area Saturday and Sunday, but no big deal as I think these storms will be isolated.
Alex C.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
July 23, 2008: 10pm
Great day coming up tomorrow...
The humidities will be low and temps will in the mid 80's! Just wonderful for any outdoor activities.
Friday-Saturday hold storm chances over our area. The best chances would be Friday evening and Saturday night, lasting into early Sunday morning. There is still the chance that there could be isolated storms Friday and Saturday afternoons. The SPC has a 5% chance of severe for Friday and say they will likely issue a slight risk later on for Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80's with humidities surging up again. Dewpoints will rise to the lower to mid 60's. Not oppressive, but noticeable.
Sunday-Wednesday should be fine with lower humidities and highs in the mid-upper 80's. There may be a storm chance Monday but will keep it out for now...
Hurricane Dolly hit the Texas coast today, 30 miles north of the Mexican border, as a category 2 hurricane. The winds were 100mph, and lots of flooding is occuring in coastal areas. Tornado watches are also out all over the southern part of Texas, because of the rotation in the hurricane...more on the damage and storm reports tomorrow...
Alex C.
The humidities will be low and temps will in the mid 80's! Just wonderful for any outdoor activities.
Friday-Saturday hold storm chances over our area. The best chances would be Friday evening and Saturday night, lasting into early Sunday morning. There is still the chance that there could be isolated storms Friday and Saturday afternoons. The SPC has a 5% chance of severe for Friday and say they will likely issue a slight risk later on for Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80's with humidities surging up again. Dewpoints will rise to the lower to mid 60's. Not oppressive, but noticeable.
Sunday-Wednesday should be fine with lower humidities and highs in the mid-upper 80's. There may be a storm chance Monday but will keep it out for now...
Hurricane Dolly hit the Texas coast today, 30 miles north of the Mexican border, as a category 2 hurricane. The winds were 100mph, and lots of flooding is occuring in coastal areas. Tornado watches are also out all over the southern part of Texas, because of the rotation in the hurricane...more on the damage and storm reports tomorrow...
Alex C.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
July 22, 2008: 4:40pm
The SPC has dropped most of the area out of a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
A few storms may develop over Louisville and southern Indiana, but they will be non severe. The slight risk is now south of Louisville.
Tomorrow will be less humid, and Thursday even better as the temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80's.
Friday-Saturday holds a chance of storms, but the temperatures will stay in the mid 80's. The only difference will be increased dewpoints to the lower 60's.
Sunday-Tuesday look beautiful again, with highs in the middle 80's and dewpoints in the comfortable 50's.
Alex C.
A few storms may develop over Louisville and southern Indiana, but they will be non severe. The slight risk is now south of Louisville.
Tomorrow will be less humid, and Thursday even better as the temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80's.
Friday-Saturday holds a chance of storms, but the temperatures will stay in the mid 80's. The only difference will be increased dewpoints to the lower 60's.
Sunday-Tuesday look beautiful again, with highs in the middle 80's and dewpoints in the comfortable 50's.
Alex C.
July 22, 2008: 12:40pm
No changes to SPC forecast...still waiting for storms to fire...
See previous discussion below...
Alex C.
See previous discussion below...
Alex C.
July 22, 2008: 9:45am
Keeping today now in a CODE RED...
Last night the storms were not as strong as were originally thought. There were some trees down in Jennings & Jefferson counties in Indiana, and trees and power lines down in Owen county Kentucky. The damage was not that widespread...
For a complete recap of yesterday's storm reports, click here.
For a complete recap of local storm reports from Sunday, click here.
Now if you thought the past 2 days of weather were exciting, then check out today's severe probabilities...
Wind threat: 30% south of I-64, 15% north of I-64
Threat of hail: 15%
These probabilities are not as impressive as yesterday, but Marc Weinberg says that today will be the day of the most widespread storms in our area. He also believes there we will be under a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon, and that lots of counties would go under warnings. However, he also said the damage would not be widespread.
The SPC says, "EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS COULD YIELD A FEW SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH THE HAIL THREAT LIKELY GREATEST FROM MO INTO IL/IND/KY."
So the hail threat is greatest over our area according to the SPC...
The timing for these storms will be after 12pm. I will post all morning and afternoon as needed during this severe weather...
Alex C.
Last night the storms were not as strong as were originally thought. There were some trees down in Jennings & Jefferson counties in Indiana, and trees and power lines down in Owen county Kentucky. The damage was not that widespread...
For a complete recap of yesterday's storm reports, click here.
For a complete recap of local storm reports from Sunday, click here.
Now if you thought the past 2 days of weather were exciting, then check out today's severe probabilities...
Wind threat: 30% south of I-64, 15% north of I-64
Threat of hail: 15%
These probabilities are not as impressive as yesterday, but Marc Weinberg says that today will be the day of the most widespread storms in our area. He also believes there we will be under a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon, and that lots of counties would go under warnings. However, he also said the damage would not be widespread.
The SPC says, "EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS COULD YIELD A FEW SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH THE HAIL THREAT LIKELY GREATEST FROM MO INTO IL/IND/KY."
So the hail threat is greatest over our area according to the SPC...
The timing for these storms will be after 12pm. I will post all morning and afternoon as needed during this severe weather...
Alex C.
Monday, July 21, 2008
July 21, 2008: 9:30pm
Threat of severe is rising...
The Storm Prediction Center has now put parts of the area in a MODERATE risk of severe thunderstorms...with the rest of the area in a slight risk.
The moderate risk runs primarily north of I-64. This includes Salem, Paoli, Seymour, and Bedford. The wind threat, again, seems to be the big issue for us.
There is a 45% chance of damaging winds >58mph over the moderate risk area, or north of I-64. The rest of far south Indiana and the counties in Kentucky bordering the Ohio River are in a 30% chance.
Take a look at the radar for the watch northwest of us...
These storms are mean! Right now those storms in Illinois are producing golf ball sized hail and some winds over 70mph! The storms in northeast Missouri have tornado warnings on them for now...but all of them will turn linear and mostly into a damaging wind threat by the time they get here...
The Storm Prediction Center has now put parts of the area in a MODERATE risk of severe thunderstorms...with the rest of the area in a slight risk.
The moderate risk runs primarily north of I-64. This includes Salem, Paoli, Seymour, and Bedford. The wind threat, again, seems to be the big issue for us.
There is a 45% chance of damaging winds >58mph over the moderate risk area, or north of I-64. The rest of far south Indiana and the counties in Kentucky bordering the Ohio River are in a 30% chance.
Take a look at the radar for the watch northwest of us...
These storms are mean! Right now those storms in Illinois are producing golf ball sized hail and some winds over 70mph! The storms in northeast Missouri have tornado warnings on them for now...but all of them will turn linear and mostly into a damaging wind threat by the time they get here...
The SPC sees those severe storms tracking east/southeast, which would hit those areas in the moderate risk in southern Indiana. The SPC also thinks that there will be more development in central Missouri, which would probably be our best storm threat. They are about to issue a watch from Kansas City to Saint Louis to the IL/IN border for these new storms.
We will have to see if they all develop and if the storms already out there hold together...but if they do, we may have some late night damaging winds...
This will be my last post of the night, but I will be up watching these storms. Use your weather radio, local media, and the links on the right side of the blog to keep you up to date on this ever changing severe weather situation!
I will have a full recap of the storms (if they get here) tomorrow. Also, it is worth noting that there is a 15% chance of severe tomorrow along and south of I-64...but I'll wait until tomorrow to talk about that!
Stay safe!
Alex C.
July 21, 2008: 4:30pm
Severe threat over for now...
The storms that blew up over our area early in the afternoon have left, leaving the severe thunderstorm watch cancelled.
There were many trees and power lines down over highways in Corydon, IN, and power lines also down in West Point, KY.
Let me now explain the situation for tonight...
The storms have ended for now. We may get an isolated pop up during the early evening, but no severe is expected.
Our next chance of severe will be after 10pm tonight. A storm complex developing over northern Missouri and central Illinois will move southeast towards our area during the night time hours. The storms will produce lots of wind damage over these areas, but they may weaken some as they move towards southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
For this reason, west of I-65 is in a 30% chance of wind damage, and east of 65 is now in a 15% chance. However, notice that the 45% hatched area goes to western Indiana. The question is how soon and how much they will weaken after they move into Indiana.
Remember last night when the storms seemingly exploded when the sun went down? That was because of how hot it was. When it is that hot, it caps the atmosphere and won't let storms develop. So, the sun is out and it is heating up again. Our humidity in place will help to destabilize the atmosphere. This may lead to the same thing as last night; the storms continue on through the night, still remaining severe.
I will probably again around 9:15pm...
Alex C.
The storms that blew up over our area early in the afternoon have left, leaving the severe thunderstorm watch cancelled.
There were many trees and power lines down over highways in Corydon, IN, and power lines also down in West Point, KY.
Let me now explain the situation for tonight...
The storms have ended for now. We may get an isolated pop up during the early evening, but no severe is expected.
Our next chance of severe will be after 10pm tonight. A storm complex developing over northern Missouri and central Illinois will move southeast towards our area during the night time hours. The storms will produce lots of wind damage over these areas, but they may weaken some as they move towards southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
For this reason, west of I-65 is in a 30% chance of wind damage, and east of 65 is now in a 15% chance. However, notice that the 45% hatched area goes to western Indiana. The question is how soon and how much they will weaken after they move into Indiana.
Remember last night when the storms seemingly exploded when the sun went down? That was because of how hot it was. When it is that hot, it caps the atmosphere and won't let storms develop. So, the sun is out and it is heating up again. Our humidity in place will help to destabilize the atmosphere. This may lead to the same thing as last night; the storms continue on through the night, still remaining severe.
I will probably again around 9:15pm...
Alex C.
July 21, 2008: 1:10pm
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm EDT for the following counties outlined in this map...
Warnings for Harrison county, IN, NE Bullitt county, KY, and SW Jefferson county, KY are currently in effect.
Hail to golf ball sized and winds to 70mph are possible inside of this watch area...
Other episodes of severe weather are possible later on...see previous post...
Alex C.
July 21, 2008: 12:30pm
Nothing different from the morning SPC outlook for our area. Still a 30% chance of damaging winds >58mph.
A few strong storms have developed over southern Indiana and far north-central Kentucky...and this will continue to be the case as the storms become more organized and more widespread.
We may have 2-3 opportunities of severe as the humidity values will allow for continuous rounds of storms over the area.
SPC says another nighttime scenario may evolve tonight with severe-tornadic storms...
Expect the potential for isolated severe until a solid line develops.
Right now at my house it is 85, with a dewpoint of 75. Very humid, so limit outdoor activity...
I will post more on the severe all afternoon and evening...
Alex C.
A few strong storms have developed over southern Indiana and far north-central Kentucky...and this will continue to be the case as the storms become more organized and more widespread.
We may have 2-3 opportunities of severe as the humidity values will allow for continuous rounds of storms over the area.
SPC says another nighttime scenario may evolve tonight with severe-tornadic storms...
Expect the potential for isolated severe until a solid line develops.
Right now at my house it is 85, with a dewpoint of 75. Very humid, so limit outdoor activity...
I will post more on the severe all afternoon and evening...
Alex C.
July 21, 2008: 9:45am
CODE Red for today...severe weather mode...
Before I get to today...let me wrap up last night's storms.
The lightning was incredible...I watched for a half hour as the lightning would flash several times and then the bolt would crawl across the sky.
For a full report on the damage, as well as wind/hail reports: Click here.
There was damage, especially in the northern counties, like I said. Trees were down all over Seymour and all of Jackson county. Another hard hit area was further south over Harrison county, with golf ball sized hail and trees down. A tornado warning was issued for Crawford county, and a wall cloud was spotted. However, no tornado touched down.
Now, for today, I am really in severe weather mode...I will be updating thoughout the day.
There is a severe storm watch over central Indiana, but those storms are weakening. The key with this is that it will leave a miniature cold front over our area, which will fire storms. These storms have a good potential of being severe.
Threat of hail: 15%
Threat of wind: 30%
As I said, a 30% has been issued for the threat of damaging winds...so look out for that this afternoon.
Most of the ingredients for severe are there...it will be very hot (in the 90's) and dewpoints will be in the 70-75 degree range. This will bring heat indices to over 100 degrees in some spots.
There are not the strongest midlevel winds ever, but the risk for severe is still enhanced today.
There is also a 2% chance of tornadoes, so an isolated tornado or two is also possible over the area.
I will post as needed...
Alex C.
Before I get to today...let me wrap up last night's storms.
The lightning was incredible...I watched for a half hour as the lightning would flash several times and then the bolt would crawl across the sky.
For a full report on the damage, as well as wind/hail reports: Click here.
There was damage, especially in the northern counties, like I said. Trees were down all over Seymour and all of Jackson county. Another hard hit area was further south over Harrison county, with golf ball sized hail and trees down. A tornado warning was issued for Crawford county, and a wall cloud was spotted. However, no tornado touched down.
Now, for today, I am really in severe weather mode...I will be updating thoughout the day.
There is a severe storm watch over central Indiana, but those storms are weakening. The key with this is that it will leave a miniature cold front over our area, which will fire storms. These storms have a good potential of being severe.
Threat of hail: 15%
Threat of wind: 30%
As I said, a 30% has been issued for the threat of damaging winds...so look out for that this afternoon.
Most of the ingredients for severe are there...it will be very hot (in the 90's) and dewpoints will be in the 70-75 degree range. This will bring heat indices to over 100 degrees in some spots.
There are not the strongest midlevel winds ever, but the risk for severe is still enhanced today.
There is also a 2% chance of tornadoes, so an isolated tornado or two is also possible over the area.
I will post as needed...
Alex C.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
July 18, 2008: 4:40pm...correction for mention of TS Dolly
Tropical Storm Dolly has developed near the Yucatan with winds of 45 mph. It will cross over the Yucatan, and may become a hurricane before hitting somewhere near the TX/Mexico border...
See post on Severe Thunderstorm Watch 710 over southern Indiana below...
Alex C.
July 20, 2008: 4:40pm
Severe Thunderstorm watch is in effect for the outlined counties below until 9pm EDT...
Personally, I don't think there is too much of a risk with this one today, but a few of those storms in central Indiana may make it down into the northern part of southern Indiana severe. However, these storms will quickly die after 9pm...so,
I'm not sure that they will make it down to our area severe. Southern Indiana and Louisville may not even get rain out of this one. We'll have to see...
If it does make it to southern Indiana severe...the SPC says hail to golf ball sized and winds to 70 mph are possible. But it is, again, unlikely, that we will see that.
Strangely, we have a 2% chance of tornadoes for southern Indiana tonight, so that raises hopes that these storms will make it down here severe...
Meanwhile, it is very hot and humid today. Earlier at my house, the temperature was 90 with 58% humidity, which is pretty much a 70 degree dewpoint. I haven't been outside yet today...
Tomorrow looks like a better chance of severe weather during the evening and nighttime hours. Damaging winds are once again the main threat. As you see from the map, we are in a 15% chance of severe weather. I think that if they come in the evening, we should be in a 30% chance.
Tomorrow will be hot and humid just like today...
Showers/storms will last into Tuesday as well. Temps will be in the rain-cooled mid 80's. Another 5% chance of severe exists as well...
Wednesday will have highs in the middle 80's and dewpoints around 60...so, clear and less humidity.
I still think Thursday evening could have some storms, also lasting into Friday morning. But, the threat of severe is down for now because we may need more moisture to get big storms going. Thursday-Friday highs will be in the upper 80's with the dewpoints in the lower to mid 60's.
Saturday-Sunday will be sunny, with highs between 85-90, and dewpoints cooler, in the upper 50's to lower 60's.
I will post on the severe tonight if it becomes necessary...
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Padraig Harrington won the British Open for the 2nd straight year, beating Ian Poulter by 4 shots. Harrington finished at +3. 53-year old Greg Norman came in a tie for 3rd at +9.
Kentuckian Kenny Perry finished tied for 6th in the PGA Tournament in Milwaukee this week...
Olympics are in 18 days...
Alex C.
Personally, I don't think there is too much of a risk with this one today, but a few of those storms in central Indiana may make it down into the northern part of southern Indiana severe. However, these storms will quickly die after 9pm...so,
I'm not sure that they will make it down to our area severe. Southern Indiana and Louisville may not even get rain out of this one. We'll have to see...
If it does make it to southern Indiana severe...the SPC says hail to golf ball sized and winds to 70 mph are possible. But it is, again, unlikely, that we will see that.
Strangely, we have a 2% chance of tornadoes for southern Indiana tonight, so that raises hopes that these storms will make it down here severe...
Meanwhile, it is very hot and humid today. Earlier at my house, the temperature was 90 with 58% humidity, which is pretty much a 70 degree dewpoint. I haven't been outside yet today...
Tomorrow looks like a better chance of severe weather during the evening and nighttime hours. Damaging winds are once again the main threat. As you see from the map, we are in a 15% chance of severe weather. I think that if they come in the evening, we should be in a 30% chance.
Tomorrow will be hot and humid just like today...
Showers/storms will last into Tuesday as well. Temps will be in the rain-cooled mid 80's. Another 5% chance of severe exists as well...
Wednesday will have highs in the middle 80's and dewpoints around 60...so, clear and less humidity.
I still think Thursday evening could have some storms, also lasting into Friday morning. But, the threat of severe is down for now because we may need more moisture to get big storms going. Thursday-Friday highs will be in the upper 80's with the dewpoints in the lower to mid 60's.
Saturday-Sunday will be sunny, with highs between 85-90, and dewpoints cooler, in the upper 50's to lower 60's.
I will post on the severe tonight if it becomes necessary...
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Padraig Harrington won the British Open for the 2nd straight year, beating Ian Poulter by 4 shots. Harrington finished at +3. 53-year old Greg Norman came in a tie for 3rd at +9.
Kentuckian Kenny Perry finished tied for 6th in the PGA Tournament in Milwaukee this week...
Olympics are in 18 days...
Alex C.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
July 19, 2008: 7pm
Much to discuss...
Tomorrow, isolated storms are likely to pop up over our area. Our temps will still be in the lower 90's with dewpoints around 65. There is a 5% chance of severe weather tomorrow, but mostly look for heavy rain and an isolated strong wind gust.
Monday is interesting, so I've upgraded it to a CODE ORANGE. There is a slight risk (15% chance) of severe storms over our area for Monday.
I think we may need to be put in a 30% area...and here's the reason why I think that:
We will have hot temperatures to the lower 90's and dewpoints in the upper 60's, much like Sunday but a little more humid. Our only problem will be the limited wind energy, but we will have to see.
The best threat from these storms would be damaging winds >58mph. The best time period would be late afternoon Monday through the evening and early night time hours.
Tuesday will have a lingering chance of showers/storms during the daytime hours, especially the morning. Highs will be in the upper 80's.
Wednesday will be sunny with lower dewpoints (near 60) and highs in the mid 80's.
Thursday-Friday will introduce a threat of storms again, as dewpoints rise into the mid 60's and highs rise to near 90. The best threat for storms would be Thursday afternoon-evening, lingering into Friday morning. I believe we could have a chance at severe weather Thursday evening, but I'm still not sure about the moisture values after Tuesday's front...
Next Saturday should be just fine...with highs in the mid 80's and dewpoints in the upper 50's!!!
So...day's to watch are Monday and Thursday...
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Tropical Storm Christidal has developed off of the coast of North Carolina. The storm has only 45 mph winds, and will be more of a rain/heavy surf threat along the Virginia/North & South Carolina coastlines.
Tomorrow, isolated storms are likely to pop up over our area. Our temps will still be in the lower 90's with dewpoints around 65. There is a 5% chance of severe weather tomorrow, but mostly look for heavy rain and an isolated strong wind gust.
Monday is interesting, so I've upgraded it to a CODE ORANGE. There is a slight risk (15% chance) of severe storms over our area for Monday.
I think we may need to be put in a 30% area...and here's the reason why I think that:
We will have hot temperatures to the lower 90's and dewpoints in the upper 60's, much like Sunday but a little more humid. Our only problem will be the limited wind energy, but we will have to see.
The best threat from these storms would be damaging winds >58mph. The best time period would be late afternoon Monday through the evening and early night time hours.
Tuesday will have a lingering chance of showers/storms during the daytime hours, especially the morning. Highs will be in the upper 80's.
Wednesday will be sunny with lower dewpoints (near 60) and highs in the mid 80's.
Thursday-Friday will introduce a threat of storms again, as dewpoints rise into the mid 60's and highs rise to near 90. The best threat for storms would be Thursday afternoon-evening, lingering into Friday morning. I believe we could have a chance at severe weather Thursday evening, but I'm still not sure about the moisture values after Tuesday's front...
Next Saturday should be just fine...with highs in the mid 80's and dewpoints in the upper 50's!!!
So...day's to watch are Monday and Thursday...
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Tropical Storm Christidal has developed off of the coast of North Carolina. The storm has only 45 mph winds, and will be more of a rain/heavy surf threat along the Virginia/North & South Carolina coastlines.
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Just a couple stories to wrap this post up...
My friend Chris Wilkerson is heading to Louisville for the American Idol tryouts.
He was in a FOX 41 contest where the first step was to call in three "code" words (previously released) in the first few minutes of the calling. The 112 people who made it were then to sing against each other, all 112 of them, for a guaranteed audition in front of an American Idol producer. Chris Wilkerson beat all 111 others to win the automatic audition...
So a shout out for him...and a big congradulations!!!
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The British Open Golf Tournament, after 3 rounds, has the oldest leader to ever lead in a major after 3 Rounds...
The famed Greg Norman, now 53, leads at +2 by two shots over Padraig Harrington and K.J. Choi (+4). He will play with Padraig Harrington in the final group tomorrow morning. Simon Wakefield is 3 back at +5, and Anthony Kim, Ben Curtis, Ross Fisher, and Alexander Noren are 5 back at +7.
TV coverage of the final round tomorrow will be at 8am ET on ABC (WHAS-11 in Louisville).
Alex C.
Friday, July 18, 2008
July 18, 2008: 5pm
British Open 2nd Round Leaderboard:
K.J. Choi -1
Greg Norman E
Camilo Villegas +1
Rocco Mediate +2
Graeme McDowell +2
Jim Furyk +2
Robery Allenby +2
Alexander Noren +2
Padraig Harrington +2
David Duval +2
Phil Michelson +7
See weather discussion below...
Alex C.
K.J. Choi -1
Greg Norman E
Camilo Villegas +1
Rocco Mediate +2
Graeme McDowell +2
Jim Furyk +2
Robery Allenby +2
Alexander Noren +2
Padraig Harrington +2
David Duval +2
Phil Michelson +7
See weather discussion below...
Alex C.
July 18, 2008: 4:15pm
More of the same...
Tomorrow will be in the lower 90's again; essentially, an exact copy of today...
Sunday will bring an isolated storm chance with highs in the lower 90's in dewpoints in the upper 60's. There is a 5% chance of severe weather over southern Indiana and Louisville for Sunday. Best chance with this would be just an isolated pulse type severe that would produce a quick wind gust...
Monday-Tuesday will bring scattered storms to the area. These storms will help knock temperatures down to the upper 80's to near 90 for these two days. Dewpoints will again be in the upper 60's.
Wednesday-Friday will again be around 90, but dewpoints slightly lower in the mid 60's. An isolated storm can not be ruled out for Wednesday.
SPC is still considering severe risks Monday-Tuesday for our area...stay tuned...
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British Open 2nd Round scores coming up...
Alex C.
Tomorrow will be in the lower 90's again; essentially, an exact copy of today...
Sunday will bring an isolated storm chance with highs in the lower 90's in dewpoints in the upper 60's. There is a 5% chance of severe weather over southern Indiana and Louisville for Sunday. Best chance with this would be just an isolated pulse type severe that would produce a quick wind gust...
Monday-Tuesday will bring scattered storms to the area. These storms will help knock temperatures down to the upper 80's to near 90 for these two days. Dewpoints will again be in the upper 60's.
Wednesday-Friday will again be around 90, but dewpoints slightly lower in the mid 60's. An isolated storm can not be ruled out for Wednesday.
SPC is still considering severe risks Monday-Tuesday for our area...stay tuned...
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British Open 2nd Round scores coming up...
Alex C.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
July 17, 2008: 5pm
British Open Leaderboard through 1 Round:
Rocco Mediate -1
Greame McDowell -1
Robert Allenby -1
Greg Norman E
Adam Scott E
Bart Bryant E
8 at +1
Phil Michelson +9
See weather discussion below...
Alex C.
Rocco Mediate -1
Greame McDowell -1
Robert Allenby -1
Greg Norman E
Adam Scott E
Bart Bryant E
8 at +1
Phil Michelson +9
See weather discussion below...
Alex C.
July 17, 2008: 4:50pm
Hot weather continues...
This high pressure is so strong that the humidities will not go up at all until Saturday...but I think no storm chance until Sunday.
Friday-Saturday will be 95 with dewpoints in the lower 60's.
Sunday will have temps in lower 90's, with our first chance of isolated storms.
Monday-Thursday will have temps in the upper 80's to lower 90's with dewpoints climbing to the upper 60's to lower 70's during this period. Scattered storms are likely during this period...
SPC is talking about a threat of severe Sunday-Wednesday over parts of the area...stay tuned.
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This high pressure is so strong that the humidities will not go up at all until Saturday...but I think no storm chance until Sunday.
Friday-Saturday will be 95 with dewpoints in the lower 60's.
Sunday will have temps in lower 90's, with our first chance of isolated storms.
Monday-Thursday will have temps in the upper 80's to lower 90's with dewpoints climbing to the upper 60's to lower 70's during this period. Scattered storms are likely during this period...
SPC is talking about a threat of severe Sunday-Wednesday over parts of the area...stay tuned.
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I will post British Open 1st Round scores momentarily...
Alex C.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
July 16, 2008: 7pm
NO major changes to the forecast...
Temperatures will be in the lower 90's for the next 5 days, and then near 90 Tuesday-Wednesday.
The dewpoints will be in the lower-mid 60's the next 2 days, and then rise into upper 60's-lower 70's by Saturday.
Saturday-Wednesday, isolated to at times scattered storms are possible over the area...
I took the rain chance out for Friday because the high pressure is so strong that it will continue to dominate the area, eliminate the rain chance.
Alex C.
Temperatures will be in the lower 90's for the next 5 days, and then near 90 Tuesday-Wednesday.
The dewpoints will be in the lower-mid 60's the next 2 days, and then rise into upper 60's-lower 70's by Saturday.
Saturday-Wednesday, isolated to at times scattered storms are possible over the area...
I took the rain chance out for Friday because the high pressure is so strong that it will continue to dominate the area, eliminate the rain chance.
Alex C.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
July 15, 2008: 11:45am
I decided to take advantage of a computer library for my blog...and many other things...
No change to the forecast from yesterday...
The next week will have temps from 90-95 with dewpoints gradually increasing from the lower 60's today to the upper 60's Friday.
Sunny skies today-Thursday with an isolated storm possible beginning Friday and lasting through Monday...
REDUCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY!!!
Alex C.
No change to the forecast from yesterday...
The next week will have temps from 90-95 with dewpoints gradually increasing from the lower 60's today to the upper 60's Friday.
Sunny skies today-Thursday with an isolated storm possible beginning Friday and lasting through Monday...
REDUCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY!!!
Alex C.
Monday, July 14, 2008
July 14, 2008: 10:30pm
Same song, third verse is the storyline for the next week!
The temps will be from 90-95 over the next 7 days. The dewpoints will rise from near 60 tomorrow to the upper 60's by Friday.
Friday-Monday, an isolated afternoon storm chance is introduced with the warmth and humidity.
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A quick note from the Kenny Perry story yesterday:
He is now 3rd on the Ryder Cup points list...
Alex C.
The temps will be from 90-95 over the next 7 days. The dewpoints will rise from near 60 tomorrow to the upper 60's by Friday.
Friday-Monday, an isolated afternoon storm chance is introduced with the warmth and humidity.
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A quick note from the Kenny Perry story yesterday:
He is now 3rd on the Ryder Cup points list...
Alex C.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
July 13, 2008: 10pm
Last nights storms were incredible...they were not severe, but the lightning was brilliant! I popped a bag of popcorn, and then sat on the couch, looked out the window, and watched the lightning show!
Anyway...
Great news for tomorrow...
I will be mowing the lawn and you should be too!!!!
The temperatures will be in the middle 80's and low humidities...a perfect day for yardwork!
The rest of the week, however, will warm considerably, with Tuesday-Sunday looking to be in the 90-95 degree range. The dewpoints will rise slowly from the middle 50's Tuesday to the upper 60's by Friday or Saturday.
By Friday through the weekend, an isolated thunderstorm is definitely possible.
Yes, this could be the first real heat wave of 2008.
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Since this blog is called "The Final 15: Weather and Sports", I'll take a moment to talk about Kentucky golfer Kenny Perry.
He won the John Deere Classic today in a playoff. He won because of his good putting, and the fact that his two other opponents hit their balls in the water on the playoff hole!
This makes him a lock on the 2008 Ryder Cup team (which will be played in Louisville). He moves into 1st on the Fedex Cup points list. Note that if you are first on that list at the end of the year, you win $10,000,000!!!
Anyway, the 2008 Ryder Cup is at Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, KY, September 15-21, 2008.
The British Open is this coming week...
I will try to post on more sports from now on, as some people read the blog for that as well.
I will post on any sport I feel like, such as golf, olympics, football, and basketball. And sometimes, you never know what sports I'll talk about!
Alex C.
Anyway...
Great news for tomorrow...
I will be mowing the lawn and you should be too!!!!
The temperatures will be in the middle 80's and low humidities...a perfect day for yardwork!
The rest of the week, however, will warm considerably, with Tuesday-Sunday looking to be in the 90-95 degree range. The dewpoints will rise slowly from the middle 50's Tuesday to the upper 60's by Friday or Saturday.
By Friday through the weekend, an isolated thunderstorm is definitely possible.
Yes, this could be the first real heat wave of 2008.
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Since this blog is called "The Final 15: Weather and Sports", I'll take a moment to talk about Kentucky golfer Kenny Perry.
He won the John Deere Classic today in a playoff. He won because of his good putting, and the fact that his two other opponents hit their balls in the water on the playoff hole!
This makes him a lock on the 2008 Ryder Cup team (which will be played in Louisville). He moves into 1st on the Fedex Cup points list. Note that if you are first on that list at the end of the year, you win $10,000,000!!!
Anyway, the 2008 Ryder Cup is at Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, KY, September 15-21, 2008.
The British Open is this coming week...
I will try to post on more sports from now on, as some people read the blog for that as well.
I will post on any sport I feel like, such as golf, olympics, football, and basketball. And sometimes, you never know what sports I'll talk about!
Alex C.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
July 12, 2008: 9:45pm
The threat for severe has diminished over the southern Indiana part of the watch area...
There is still a chance for an isolated strong wind gust to 50 mph, but nothing in severe limits (>58mph).
With our very high humidity...our problem is heavy rain now...
As you can see from this map, there is a pretty substancial amout of rain that is not moving too fast. There are several flash flood warnings over central and west-central Indiana. These are mainly based around and including Terre Haute, and just east and southeast of Indianapolis...
We shouldn't get any flash flood warnings, as the system weakens when moving east towards us. Still, we should get a pretty soaking rain...1-2 inches are not out of the question.
As always, you can comment at the bottom of the post, and send in your rain total from your backyard...
Alex C.
There is still a chance for an isolated strong wind gust to 50 mph, but nothing in severe limits (>58mph).
With our very high humidity...our problem is heavy rain now...
As you can see from this map, there is a pretty substancial amout of rain that is not moving too fast. There are several flash flood warnings over central and west-central Indiana. These are mainly based around and including Terre Haute, and just east and southeast of Indianapolis...
We shouldn't get any flash flood warnings, as the system weakens when moving east towards us. Still, we should get a pretty soaking rain...1-2 inches are not out of the question.
As always, you can comment at the bottom of the post, and send in your rain total from your backyard...
Alex C.
July 12, 2008: 5:35pm
We may see a little severe weather over parts of our area...
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of the area through midnight EDT...
The watch does not include Louisville, but areas west of Louisville (see map)
Inside of this watch area, the SPC calls for the threat of up to baseball sized hail and winds up to 70mph...
Other probabilities for this watch:
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
Looking at the map, the line that is in front is the one that is severe at this time over western Kentucky/southern IL/MO...
The other line may go severe as well, but would not effect us...
Not sure if these storms will make it here severe, however, we are under a slight risk of severe for tonight...
If you're wondering how all these storms can sustain themselves while they are following each other, then here's the answer!!!
These storms have a constant flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which will help them not to die out. However, the storms in the front of the line steal the instability, which makes their severe nature die down a little. Nevertheless, these storms will survive unless their moisture flow is cut off.
That is why I don't think the line to the north will be severe...there is moisture in the atmosphere but they don't have a moisture flow...
Going into severe mode for the night...stay tuned for updates...
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If you're wondering about the rest of the week:
It looks fine Sunday afternoon-Tuesday, with temps in the mid 80's and low humidities...
Wednesday-Saturday, however, the temps will be in the lower 90's and dewpoints in the 60's nearing 70 by Friday. A chance of storms will enter the picture beginning Thursday.
Alex C.
Friday, July 11, 2008
July 11, 2008: 8:45pm
The weekend holds a risk of storms...
The risk of severe is not too high for our area, but there is a slight risk (15% chance) of severe tomorrow night for southern Indiana...
...and Sunday over north and east-central Kentucky.
The type of storms we are dealing with are pulse-type storms. These storms blow up and pulse to severe limits, and then quickly die back down. That is why there is only an isolated severe weather risk...
The main risk from any severe storm will be damaging winds.
Isolated storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon, but the likelihood of storms increases over the area from northwest to southeast beginning tomorrow evening.
These shower/storms will continue through about 10am Sunday in southern Indiana, and end from northwest to southeast.
Any of these storms will produce heavy rain and dangerous lightning, and an occasional 45mph wind gust...
After these storms, a dry spell will begin!
Low humidities and middle 80's will rule for the rest of Sunday-Tuesday...
However, temperatures and humidities will increased for Wednesday-Friday, as temperatures will rise to the 90's and dewpoints into the 60's...
Again, Monday-Friday will all be dry!
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Here are yesterday's storm reports for the country:
Note the square box near Phoenix and the blue dots south of Las Vegas...
Also, there were a few tornadoes (red dots) in the upper midwest.
Here are a couple of the storm reports from the southwest:
7:28pm PDT
75mph wind
8 E HUALAPAI PEAK
MOHAVE county, AZ
7:27pm MST
89mph wind
APACHE JUNCTION
PINAL county, AZ
Will post about severe opprotunities tomorrow...
Alex C.
The risk of severe is not too high for our area, but there is a slight risk (15% chance) of severe tomorrow night for southern Indiana...
...and Sunday over north and east-central Kentucky.
The type of storms we are dealing with are pulse-type storms. These storms blow up and pulse to severe limits, and then quickly die back down. That is why there is only an isolated severe weather risk...
The main risk from any severe storm will be damaging winds.
Isolated storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon, but the likelihood of storms increases over the area from northwest to southeast beginning tomorrow evening.
These shower/storms will continue through about 10am Sunday in southern Indiana, and end from northwest to southeast.
Any of these storms will produce heavy rain and dangerous lightning, and an occasional 45mph wind gust...
After these storms, a dry spell will begin!
Low humidities and middle 80's will rule for the rest of Sunday-Tuesday...
However, temperatures and humidities will increased for Wednesday-Friday, as temperatures will rise to the 90's and dewpoints into the 60's...
Again, Monday-Friday will all be dry!
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Here are yesterday's storm reports for the country:
Note the square box near Phoenix and the blue dots south of Las Vegas...
Also, there were a few tornadoes (red dots) in the upper midwest.
Here are a couple of the storm reports from the southwest:
7:28pm PDT
75mph wind
8 E HUALAPAI PEAK
MOHAVE county, AZ
7:27pm MST
89mph wind
APACHE JUNCTION
PINAL county, AZ
Will post about severe opprotunities tomorrow...
Alex C.
July 11, 2008: 8:30am
Today is a code orange...
Temperatures will be from near 90 to the lower 90's today. Dewpoints will rise from near 60 this morning to near 70 this afternoon. Coupled with the pollution index for today...
An air quality alert has been issued today for Louisville, and the nearby areas.
Alex C.
Temperatures will be from near 90 to the lower 90's today. Dewpoints will rise from near 60 this morning to near 70 this afternoon. Coupled with the pollution index for today...
An air quality alert has been issued today for Louisville, and the nearby areas.
Alex C.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
July 10, 2008: 10pm
Great day coming up tomorrow...
That is if you don't mind it being hot (90-95 degrees) and sweaty (dewpoints rising to near 70 in the afternoon) ENJOY!
The main chance for rain and storms for the next week will be Saturday evening-Sunday morning. NO severe weather is anticipated, just heavy rain and lightning.
Next week looks great...Monday-Thursday will have temperatures gradually increasing from the middle 80's to near 90, and the dempoints creeping up from 50 to around 65 over the course of this period...
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Here's what WAVE-3's weather crawl said during the severe thunderstorm warning on Tuesday. This appeared in the middle of their newscast...
Another strange story...check out this weather message from Las Vegas, NV. This event occurred between 9-10pm EDT, or 6-7pm PDT.
AT 625 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OATMAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH WITH THE SEVERE WINDS PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN BULLHEAD CITY OBSERVED WIND GUSTS TO 64 MPH WITH THIS STORM. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITIES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
I will post the storm reports from the southwest tomorrow...
Alex C.
That is if you don't mind it being hot (90-95 degrees) and sweaty (dewpoints rising to near 70 in the afternoon) ENJOY!
The main chance for rain and storms for the next week will be Saturday evening-Sunday morning. NO severe weather is anticipated, just heavy rain and lightning.
Next week looks great...Monday-Thursday will have temperatures gradually increasing from the middle 80's to near 90, and the dempoints creeping up from 50 to around 65 over the course of this period...
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Here's what WAVE-3's weather crawl said during the severe thunderstorm warning on Tuesday. This appeared in the middle of their newscast...
Another strange story...check out this weather message from Las Vegas, NV. This event occurred between 9-10pm EDT, or 6-7pm PDT.
AT 625 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OATMAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH WITH THE SEVERE WINDS PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN BULLHEAD CITY OBSERVED WIND GUSTS TO 64 MPH WITH THIS STORM. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITIES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
I will post the storm reports from the southwest tomorrow...
Alex C.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
July 9, 2008: 5pm
Some damage occured yesterday in New Albany, Clarksville, and eastern Jefferson county, KY, with the storms that moved through there yesterday...
No rain at my house, but the lightning show was incredible!!! I got some reports that in New Albany and Clarksville, the rain was extremely heavy, and caused rain to pond on roads quickly! I-65 actually came to a complete stop because the rain was so heavy!!!
Belski's Blog has pics of the damage...see the link in the sidebar on right.
Meanwhile:
The showers have ended for the most part over the area...an isolated shower is still possible tonight.
Not much change in the temperature forecast, but here is the forecast anyway, in it's revised form:
Thursday-Friday: Sunny and low humidities: Highs mid 80's/Lows: mid 60's
Saturday-Sunday: Scattered showers and storms: Highs mid 80's/Lows: near 70
Monday-Wednesday: Sunny and low humidities: Highs mid 80's/Lows: mid 60's
If you would like a good laugh, here is something to watch on YouTube...
WAVE-TV in Louisville had a malfunction with their severe weather crawl during a severe weather warning...what did it say? Click here to watch...
Alex C.
No rain at my house, but the lightning show was incredible!!! I got some reports that in New Albany and Clarksville, the rain was extremely heavy, and caused rain to pond on roads quickly! I-65 actually came to a complete stop because the rain was so heavy!!!
Belski's Blog has pics of the damage...see the link in the sidebar on right.
Meanwhile:
The showers have ended for the most part over the area...an isolated shower is still possible tonight.
Not much change in the temperature forecast, but here is the forecast anyway, in it's revised form:
Thursday-Friday: Sunny and low humidities: Highs mid 80's/Lows: mid 60's
Saturday-Sunday: Scattered showers and storms: Highs mid 80's/Lows: near 70
Monday-Wednesday: Sunny and low humidities: Highs mid 80's/Lows: mid 60's
If you would like a good laugh, here is something to watch on YouTube...
WAVE-TV in Louisville had a malfunction with their severe weather crawl during a severe weather warning...what did it say? Click here to watch...
Alex C.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
July 8, 2008: 4:30pm
Interesting system developing for the evening which will bring us heavy rain...
Everyone in the area is in CODE ORANGE now...
The western part of the area has had an opprotunity to dry out late yesterday and today, so the better chance of flooding as been dropped out of my forecast...
Isolated storms are likely in the area this evening, any of which could have gusty winds and heavy rain...
There is a slight risk of severe along and north of a line front Paoli, IN, to Salem, IN, to Madison, IN, but nothing organized is likely. The only minor threat is damaging winds (15% chance)...Do not anticipate severe weather...
The front will stall overnight tonight. I think the southern Indinana and north-central Kentucky area has equal chances of the heaviest rain. 1-2.5 inches of rain with some possible totals up to 3.5 inches can be expected.
The best time period for this activity will be from 1 am Wednesday-7pm Wednesday...
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Thursday will be clearing, with low 80's and lower humidities, while Friday will be in the upper 80's.
However, Saturday-Monday hold isolated storm chances as the humidity increases and the temps rise to near 90.
Tuesday looks okay with highs in the upper 80's.
Alex C.
Everyone in the area is in CODE ORANGE now...
The western part of the area has had an opprotunity to dry out late yesterday and today, so the better chance of flooding as been dropped out of my forecast...
Isolated storms are likely in the area this evening, any of which could have gusty winds and heavy rain...
There is a slight risk of severe along and north of a line front Paoli, IN, to Salem, IN, to Madison, IN, but nothing organized is likely. The only minor threat is damaging winds (15% chance)...Do not anticipate severe weather...
The front will stall overnight tonight. I think the southern Indinana and north-central Kentucky area has equal chances of the heaviest rain. 1-2.5 inches of rain with some possible totals up to 3.5 inches can be expected.
The best time period for this activity will be from 1 am Wednesday-7pm Wednesday...
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Thursday will be clearing, with low 80's and lower humidities, while Friday will be in the upper 80's.
However, Saturday-Monday hold isolated storm chances as the humidity increases and the temps rise to near 90.
Tuesday looks okay with highs in the upper 80's.
Alex C.
Monday, July 7, 2008
July 7, 2008: 7:15pm
The forecast tonight for this next system will be broken down a bit into different areas...
Entire area:
The rain is over for tonight...NO HAZARDS
For tomorrow, isolated storms are possible during the day, but the heat will be the main story. Highs will be from 90 to 93...CODE YELLOW
(Note: Lows for the next week will average from 70-75...)
The main weather story will be a front that will move into the area, and stall somewhere from southern Indiana to the Kentucky/Tennessee border. This will effect our weather from Tuesday night through Thursday morning...CODE RED for parts of the area...see below discussion
After that, the weather will calm down and heat up...with highs from Friday-Monday in the lower to middle 90's. An isolated storm or two can be expected each day in this period. Humidity will be high, so heat indexes could reach 100...CODE ORANGE
Remember, there is a code PURPLE and WHITE, which are worse than red...
Regionalized forecast for Tuesday night-Thursday morning:
West-central, parts of south-central Indiana, and northwest Kentucky:
This area is west of a line from Seymour, IN to Salem, IN to Corydon, IN to Brandenburg, KY to Leitchfield, KY...
These areas are under a code red for the potential for more heavy rain. This morning, 2-3 inches fell in this area. With the stationary front effecting the weather, heavy rain is again possible Tuesday late night-Wednesday afternoon. A flood watch may be issued for these areas, as around 1-2 inches of rain is possible over these areas in Indiana. Northwest Kentucky could see anywhere front 2-3 inches.
These totals will all change depending on where the front stalls...if it stalls over the Ohio River, anywhere from Seymour to E'town will see the biggest rains.
My assumption is that the front will stall in somewhere in central Kentucky...
The rain will end early Thursday morning...with not much more heavy rainfall amounts expected...
The rest of southcentral Indiana and north-central Kentucky:
This area is along and east of the previously mentioned line...
Heavy rain is possible over this area as well, but not to the extent as to the west of this area.
1-2 inches is likely over southern Indiana and the north central Kentucky counties bordering the Ohio River, with 2-3 inches likely south of there.
Of course, this could all change with the front movement. New update tomorrow...
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Hurricane Bertha is a CAT 3 with 115 mph winds, but poses NO HAZARD to the United States...
Alex C.
Entire area:
The rain is over for tonight...NO HAZARDS
For tomorrow, isolated storms are possible during the day, but the heat will be the main story. Highs will be from 90 to 93...CODE YELLOW
(Note: Lows for the next week will average from 70-75...)
The main weather story will be a front that will move into the area, and stall somewhere from southern Indiana to the Kentucky/Tennessee border. This will effect our weather from Tuesday night through Thursday morning...CODE RED for parts of the area...see below discussion
After that, the weather will calm down and heat up...with highs from Friday-Monday in the lower to middle 90's. An isolated storm or two can be expected each day in this period. Humidity will be high, so heat indexes could reach 100...CODE ORANGE
Remember, there is a code PURPLE and WHITE, which are worse than red...
Regionalized forecast for Tuesday night-Thursday morning:
West-central, parts of south-central Indiana, and northwest Kentucky:
This area is west of a line from Seymour, IN to Salem, IN to Corydon, IN to Brandenburg, KY to Leitchfield, KY...
These areas are under a code red for the potential for more heavy rain. This morning, 2-3 inches fell in this area. With the stationary front effecting the weather, heavy rain is again possible Tuesday late night-Wednesday afternoon. A flood watch may be issued for these areas, as around 1-2 inches of rain is possible over these areas in Indiana. Northwest Kentucky could see anywhere front 2-3 inches.
These totals will all change depending on where the front stalls...if it stalls over the Ohio River, anywhere from Seymour to E'town will see the biggest rains.
My assumption is that the front will stall in somewhere in central Kentucky...
The rain will end early Thursday morning...with not much more heavy rainfall amounts expected...
The rest of southcentral Indiana and north-central Kentucky:
This area is along and east of the previously mentioned line...
Heavy rain is possible over this area as well, but not to the extent as to the west of this area.
1-2 inches is likely over southern Indiana and the north central Kentucky counties bordering the Ohio River, with 2-3 inches likely south of there.
Of course, this could all change with the front movement. New update tomorrow...
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Hurricane Bertha is a CAT 3 with 115 mph winds, but poses NO HAZARD to the United States...
Alex C.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Sunday evening
Main discussion will lie in Monday-Thursday, as a slow moving front approaches and stalls over our area...
Monday's storms will be west of I-65 and will be very isolated in nature...no big deal for tomorrow.
However, Tuesday-Thursday morning will be a heavy rain event. It will not rain this entire period, but rounds of heavy rain are possible.
Isolated storms are possible again Tuesday afternoon across the entire area, becoming more widespread Tuesday night. The best chances of storms will last until Wednesday evening, with just leftover showers thru Thursday morning...
One to maybe two inches of rain can big expected through this period, again, with training of storms, you could get more.
However, this storm is so similar to the one last week that I don't see us getting an overwhelming amount of rainfall that would cause minor flooding or creek/small river rises...
So, the forecast:
Tonight: No hazards/low near 70
Monday-Tuesday 5PM: Isolated storms/high temps to lower 90's and lows in lower 70's/high humidity...limit outdoor activity
Tuesday 5PM-Wednesday night: Widespread rain/storms...1-1.5" likely/highs in mid 80's and lows in lower-middle 70's
Thursday morning: Isolated showers
Thursday night-Sunday: Hot weather/highs in upper 80's/lower 90's and lows around 70
Tropical Storm Bertha may become a hurricane in the next couple days, but according to the NHC forecast map, should not effect the U.S.
Winds are now 60mph, and the storm is still 1060 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
Alex C.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Saturday night
No major changes to the forecast as of now...
Sunday: No hazards
Monday: Isolated storms/hot and humid
Tuesday-Thursday: Off and on periods of heavy rain/storms
Friday: Isolated morning showers
Saturday: No hazards
Main event is Tuesday-Thursday with another stalled front. Do not expect severe, just heavy rain and storms.
Alex C.
Sunday: No hazards
Monday: Isolated storms/hot and humid
Tuesday-Thursday: Off and on periods of heavy rain/storms
Friday: Isolated morning showers
Saturday: No hazards
Main event is Tuesday-Thursday with another stalled front. Do not expect severe, just heavy rain and storms.
Alex C.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Happy 4th of July!
North of the Bluegrass Parkway, we're looking at smooth sailing for tonight's activities...
South of the Parkway, however, showers/storms are lining up and may effect your evening cookouts and possibly fireworks.
However, Louisville's Independence Festival will be dry!
The weeks forecast:
Tonight: Slight chance of showers
Saturday-Monday Afternoon: No hazards
Monday night-Thursday night: Off and on chances of showers/storms
Friday: No hazards
Our storm chances Monday-Thursday will come from another front that will stall over the area. Monday afternoon may need to be added into a storm chance in future posts...as well as the timing of when the front will leave.
One last note: Tropical Storm Bertha is meandering about 1250 miles from Miami, Florida...winds are 50 mph. This storm should curve into the Atlantic late next week, but should not directly affect land.
Alex C.
South of the Parkway, however, showers/storms are lining up and may effect your evening cookouts and possibly fireworks.
However, Louisville's Independence Festival will be dry!
The weeks forecast:
Tonight: Slight chance of showers
Saturday-Monday Afternoon: No hazards
Monday night-Thursday night: Off and on chances of showers/storms
Friday: No hazards
Our storm chances Monday-Thursday will come from another front that will stall over the area. Monday afternoon may need to be added into a storm chance in future posts...as well as the timing of when the front will leave.
One last note: Tropical Storm Bertha is meandering about 1250 miles from Miami, Florida...winds are 50 mph. This storm should curve into the Atlantic late next week, but should not directly affect land.
Alex C.
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