Thursday, April 30th, 2009: 4pm

Severe weather chances inhibited by clouds...

Though I have hyped some type of severe weather for Friday, and even for some today, the chances of severe weather are decreasing. There could be an isolated severe storm this evening, but this activity will not be organized. I have the Oaks code level at ORANGE, but I will not knock that down to YELLOW. Again, and severe weather we see tomorrow will be isolated, and the greatest threat will be heavy rain for the day.

Many people are left wondering about Derby day. I think that the best chances for rain will be Saturday morning and Saturday night, but there could be some isolated showers in the afternoon. Sunday night will see more rain, which will continue through Monday. 1-2" of rain could occur through Tuesday. After this rain, our weather pattern will FINALLY settle down.

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009: 8pm

Chaotic weather pattern to continue...

The SPC has the area in a 15% (slight) risk of severe weather for tomorrow and Friday.

Tomorrow's situation is quite interesting, considering the timing. The chance for severe weather will be around noon. The wind fields will be such that we could see some isolated severe weather with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible (according to the SPC). Friday's situation looks more threatening to me, as we could see some damaging winds on Friday night with the line of storms coming through Friday night.

Personally, I think that it is POSSIBLE that we could see severe weather tomorrow, but not likely. Something to keep an eye on. Friday night could be serious if we get some instability. Mid-level winds aren't great, but it's still something to watch.

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009: 8pm

This is not a joke...there is a chance of rain for the next week!

The chance of rain showers will be smallest over the next 36 hours, before a better rain chance comes in for Thursday late afternoon. Friday night looks like it could hold some severe storms, as the SPC has put us in a 30% chance of severe weather. The setup is similar to many that I have seen in the past, and if it plays out, we will see some crazy weather Friday afternoon/night.

In case my south-central Indiana readers haven't picked up on it yet, the labels of the days represent popular Derby Festival events: The Great Steamboat race, the Pegasus Parade, and of course Oaks and Derby. I just know that some people further north of Louisville may not be so familiar with these events.

Anyway, Derby looks dry in the afternoon, but there may be lingering showers in the morning. Right now, I would really have to say that we will not see rain after sunrise on Derby.

There will be a chance of isolated showers on Sunday, before a better chance on Monday. We may finally start to dry out by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

As a final point, it should be noted that we COULD see 2-3 inches of rain over the next week...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Here comes the rain...

There is simply no way to avoid the truth of this situation on Derby Week, it is going to rain! There is a chance of rain every single day this week. I think the best chances of rain at this point are tonight and tomorrow, and then again on Friday, where we could see some stronger storms. I've seen this scenario many times before, and the rain chances through Monday are not exaggerated...

Alex C.

Friday, April 24th, 2009: 4:45pm

Very warm through the weekend and on Monday. The middle of next week will hold storm chances, before we hopefully clear for Oaks and Derby Day.

alex C.

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009: 7:15pm

After a few renegade storms developed this afternoon, we WILL go into sunny and warm temperatures for the rest of the weekend and into Monday of next week before the next storm system moves in...

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009: 8:30pm

After some sleet today! warmer weather is on the way for the rest of the week...

Alex C.

Monday, April 20th, 2009: 7pm

Here's the new 7-day forecast...

I hope that all of you who went to Thunder had a good time...I had a great time. I will have some pics of Thunder up when I can get all my material organized!

We are going to see a considerable warm up after we can get through the next 2 days. Temps will be in the 80s!!! by Friday. Enjoy!!!

If any of you would like to add pictures of Thunder or any other Derby event, simply email me...

Alex C.

Thunder Over Louisville 2009: 11:30am

Have a great Thunder Over Louisville!!!

Alex C.

Thursday, April 17th, 2009: 7pm

The newest forecast brings temps to near 75 for Thunder, with a slight chance of rain towards fireworks time. I really don't think that it will be anything more than a nuisance. Sunday's weather will include rain for a good portion of the afternoon hours. After that storm, temps will rebound as nice weather returns.

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009: 10pm

Here is the latest 7-day forecast, along with the Thunder forecast. Only change for Thunder is a slight chance of rain around fireworks time...

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 14th, 2009: 7:45pm

Low clouds will continue for the next 24 hours...

After this, we will have warming temperatures into the 70's for the late week. Saturday will be nice for Thunder, with a chance for rain coming in the evening, possibly for the fireworks. I'm leaving a rain chance out of my forecast for fireworks time, so I'll be watching it carefully. The detailed Thunder Over Louisville forecast is below.

Alex C.

Monday, April 13th, 2009: 9:30pm

After a day of storm reports of large hail, weather will settle down...

The weather will be dry and warm into the 70's by the end of the week. The forecast for Thunder looks dry and pretty mild, with a chance of rain towards fireworks time. I will have a complete Thunder forecast by Tuesday or Wednesday...

I'm working on improving and changing my blog a little bit, so if you see changes, that's because I'm working on the blog...

Alex C.

UPDATE: 4/13/09: 3:30pm

Tornado watch in effect until 9pm for the entire area...

Main threat with any storm this afternoon is hail. There have been a few tornado warnings, but nothing has materialized. There has been some hail to quarter sized reported, but this is not a major widespread event. Storms will continue off and on through early evening, with the storms and hail potential continuing...

Alex C.

Easter Sunday 2009: 3:30pm

HAPPY EASTER!!!

Monday's forecast should be corrected to add the chance of severe storms (below).



Tomorrow late afternoon/night we will see a similar situation to the past few storms: a low pressure system going closeby and giving us some rotating storms. We could see some large hail and an isolated tornado or 2 out of this situation. The best time frame for this would be between 4-10pm tomorrow. Damaging winds do not appear to be much of a threat.

The forecast for Thunder Over Louisville right now has a likelihood of rain early, and then a chance during the air show. This storm may be slower than this, which would increase the threat of storms Saturday and even Sunday...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Thursday, April 9th, 2009: 9pm

Showers/storms will occur tonight...with some heavy rain possible. There has been a lot of talk about severe weather tomorrow, and I think it is all for not. The moisture values are way to low to support any organized severe weather. We could see some isolated severe storms, but not widespread by any means.

Forecast for Easter remains the same, with a chance of rain/storms towards sunset...

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009: 5:15pm

7-day forecast...click on forecast for larger view...

We may have some heavy rain tomorrow night and again on Friday. There is a small chance for severe weather yet again as the low pressure system passes very close to us on Friday. This severe event will be smaller than the one on Sunday.

There could be some late afternoon/evening showers/storms on Easter, so be aware of the weather if you are cooking out on Sunday.

The coldest of the weather appears to be over, I don't think we will get below freezing again...

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 7th, 2009: 10pm

One change to the forecast from yesterday...I have added a storm chance on Sunday night-Monday. My current thinking is that the storms will not hit in the afternoon for any plans you have on Easter, but an Easter dinner may be in question. Stay tuned...

Alex C.

Monday, April 6th, 2009: 5:40pm

After the severe weather yesterday, it is much colder with some snow today. The seven day forecast is not very active, except for Thursday night-Friday. A freeze warning is in effect tonight, so to protect your plants, bring them inside tonight and tomorrow night...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 4/5/09: 2:15PM

Tornado watch for most of the area...

SPC says that there is a 40% chance of a tornado inside the watch area, with a 20% chance of an EF-2 or greater tornado. There is a 70% chance for winds over >60mph, and a 30% chance for winds over 70mph. There is also a 50% chance of hail >1" in diameter, and 30% chance of hail >2" in diameter. Sunshine and increasing moisture values ahead of a cold front will cause storms to become enhanced this afternoon. Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes are possible. The best chance for any severe weather in our area is after 4pm, after 5pm in Louisville.

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 4/5/09: 9:30AM

SPC indicates risk of severe storms today...

The Storm Prediction Center indicates that our area has a 5% chance of tornadoes today, and a 30% chance of large hail/damaging winds. The best chance for this to occur would be later this afternoon and this evening, between 4pm-11pm. The limiting factor will be the moisture values, with dewpoints in the 30s now. For an outbreak of severe weather, dew points should be at least 60. We will have dewpoints in the 50s later, and with heating, we will see some severe weather. I will post later this afternoon...

Alex C.

Saturday, April 4th, 2009: 9pm

Chaotic weather the next 3 days...

Let's begin with tomorrow...a strong cold front will approach the area from the west on Sunday. This front will bring a line of storms to the area late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. These storms, because of some moisture, and strong wind fields, could be severe. The SPC currently has us in a 15% chance of severe weather. At this time, I would predict a 5% chance of tornadoes, a 15% chance of large hail, and a 30% chance of damaging winds. The best chance to see severe weather would be between 4-11pm tomorrow.

After this front pushes through, temperatures will drop severely. Light rain will change to snow on Monday afternoon. Along with west winds of up to 25-30mph on Monday night-Tuesday, we will see blowing snow and wind chills around 20. There will be a freeze on Wednesday morning, with lows in the 20s...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Friday, April 3rd, 2009: 9:20pm

See 7-day forecast 3 posts below for details...

Non-severe storms Sunday will lead to snow showers on Monday and Tuesday, with a moderating trend towards the end of the week. We will have highs in the 60s this weekend, by highs only around 40 for the early part of next week.

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 4/2/09: 7:15PM

Storm threat diminishing...

New Tornado Watch for the area through midnight...however, the storms will not be as bad as previously anticipated. There is still the potential for a few severe storms, and because of the proximity of the low pressure system, isolated tornadoes...

Alex c.

STORM ALERT: 4/2/09: 4:30pm

Storm alert...10% chance of tornadoes along and south of I-64, 5% chance north of I-64...

This is an MD issued by the SPC, saying that southern Indiana and northcentral Kentucky, along with western Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee, will have an increasing severe threat including tornadoes between 7-9pm. The SPC contemplates issuing a watch by 5pm...

This situation is setting up better than expected for severe weather. The sun has been out nearly all day, and near 60 dewpoints are in Kentucky. With the storm nearby, anyone east of the low pressure system wil have the potential to see severe weather in the form of supercells, including damaging hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes over the next 4-6 hours...

Alex C.

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009: 4:30pm

Here is the 7-day forecast...storm alert mode begins momentarily...see upcoming post...

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 1st, 2009: 5:30pm

7-day includes chaotic weather pattern and a few chances of severe weather...


The first severe threat is tomorrow, when our area is under a 15% chance of severe weather. This storm looks very similar to Saturday's storm, with damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes possible. Again, instability will be the issue as the storm approaches.

I think there is potential for yet another series of severe storms Sunday. However, the amount of warmth and instability will play the role in if we get severe storms. After this powerful front, we may see some snow early next week.

Alex C.