The Final 15: Weather

2010-10-26T22:20:00.000-04:00

2010-09-30T17:58:00.001-04:00

2010-09-30T17:56:00.001-04:00

Monday, November 16th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-11-16T21:35:00.002-05:00

The rain has begun over a majority of the area tonight...and will become more prevalent as we move towards tomorrow...the rain will not be that heavy. The rain will be prevalent off and on throughout the day and into Wednesday.

The skies will begin clearing through Thursday and set the stage for a nice November weekend before another rain chance by early next week...

Alex C.

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009: 3:30pm

2009-08-12T15:19:00.004-04:00

Here's a forecast that we've seen during many July's...right around average for this time of year! Next chance of rain early next week!

Alex C.

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009: 4pm

2009-08-11T15:38:00.005-04:00

Here's some nice pictures from last night's lightning storm...captured from video...the first one looks very fake, but is actually real!!!

Meanwhile, after a few showers the evening, the rest of the week looks very nice and warm! The humidity will start to increase early next week, with slight storm chances as well...

Alex C.

Monday, August 10th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-08-10T21:24:00.002-04:00

Best chance of storms tonight and tomorrow will be south of the river. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s with lows in the lower 70s.

The rest of the week looks nice with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Next storm chance looks to come in early next week as temperatures and humidity increase slightly...with highs near 90 and lows near 70.

Alex C.

Thursday, August 6th, 2009: 9:15pm

2009-08-06T21:14:00.002-04:00

Warm day tomorrow, and sunny as well with highs in the middle 80s and lows in the low 60s.

Very hot and humid for the weekend and into Monday, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s...heat indexes will be nearing 100 during the period.

Storm chances return Tuesday-Thursday, with highs decreasing into the upper 80s, but lows steady in the low 70s...

Alex C.

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009: 8pm

2009-08-04T19:55:00.003-04:00

Record flooding today in Louisville...use the links on the side of my page for details...6 inches of rain in Louisville in 75 minutes!!! Wow...

The rest of the 7 day looks calmer, but a lot more like August. Tomorrow and Thursday will have slight chances of storms, but highs/lows will be in the upper 80s/upper 60s. For the rest of the period, it will be dry, but very hot and humid, with highs/lows in the lower 90s/lower 70s.

Alex C.

Friday, July 31, 2009: 4:15pm

2009-07-31T16:18:00.002-04:00

Still can't get the 7-day to work!!! I'm keeping the same forecast as I said yesterday...but the best rain chance will be late tomorrow night and into Sunday morning, not Sunday afternoon...

Alex C.

Thursday, July 30th, 2009: 8:45pm

2009-07-30T20:38:00.002-04:00

The next 12 hours will have a period of heavy rain, with some amounts of 1-2 inches possible, especially over parts of north-central Kentucky. Some sunshine should appear to dry things out tomorrow afternoon! My 7-day is not uploading, so see yesterday's for reference. I have rain chances Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and on days when there are not rain, highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

Alex C.

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009: 9:15pm

2009-07-29T21:13:00.003-04:00

Heavy rain chances continue for the next 36 hours...

Isolated showers will continue through tomorrow morning. With the very humid conditions tomorrow afternoon and many waves of energy, expect storms with torrential rains tomorrow afternoon. Another inch of rain on top of the 2-3 inches received over the last 36 hours could cause some flash flooding issues. There could be up to 2 additional inches where very torrential rains occur. This type of rain will cause you to have to pull off the road if you are driving!

Another heavy rain event is expected Thursday night into Friday early morning. Another 1-2 inches is possible, and flooding could certainly become an issue then.

After this, a break in the weather until another system Sunday, followed by another break for Monday and Tuesday.

Alex C.

Monday, July 27th, 2009: 10:15pm

2009-07-27T22:09:00.002-04:00

Very warm humid day tomorrow, with highs nearing 90 and dewpoints in the upper 60s.

Tuesday night and especially Wednesday, a front will drop through the area bringing with it a chance of very heavy rainfall. 1-2 inches could occur in this time frame.

After a brief break on Thursday, another system will approach the area Thursday night and Friday. Another 1-2 inches are possible from this system. The weather will clear late Friday and Saturday before another storm system Sunday.

Highs on rainy days will be raincooled middle 70s, with lows in the middle 60s. Highs on clearer days will reach the lower 80s.

Alex C.

Friday, July 24th, 2009: 9:45pm

2009-07-24T21:46:00.002-04:00

15% chance of severe weather tomorrow...between 4-7pm will be the expected arrival of these storms...damaging winds would be the main threat. Besides this, it will be warm and humid with highs in the middle 80s. More on the severe weather tomorrow, and look at the previous post for the 7-day!

Alex C.

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-07-23T21:28:00.004-04:00

A nice day upcoming for tomorrow...it will be a bit humid but definitely managable for this time of year...

Saturday could yield some strong storms late afternoon and into the evening in approach of a cold front. There could be some severe weather with this so stay tuned...

The rest of the period should have average temperatures for this time of year and will mostly be dry...

Alex C.

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009: 10:15pm

2009-07-21T22:10:00.002-04:00

Heavy rain possible over the next 18 hours...

Rain will begin falling overnight and will continue through the early afternoon tomorrow. Some heavy rain will be possible tomorrow morning, with rain totals reaching 1.5". Some ponding of water on roadways is possible, along with some minor flooding.

The rest of the 7-day looks pretty good with just slight chances of storms Thursday and Friday. The most substancial rains will be tomorrow and then another system on Saturday.

Alex C.

2009-07-20T22:04:00.003-04:00

A good weather day tomorrow will be in storm before a spring/summer like pattern returns, with a chance of storms every day through the first part of the weekend. This will also bring slightly more humidity. Clearing will occur by the first part of next week.

Alex C.

Friday, July 17th, 2009: 8:30pm

2009-07-17T20:27:00.002-04:00

Sunny for the next 5 days...highs in the middle 70s and lows in the mid 50s for the weekend, then highs in the lower-mid 80s in lows in the low 60s through Wednesday. Next chance of storms is Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid-80s in lows in the mid 60s.

Alex C.

Thursday, July 16th, 2009: 10pm

2009-07-16T21:46:00.003-04:00

After some showers tomorrow morning, we are well on our way to one of the most beautiful weekends July has ever seen, and a very nice first part of next week as well.

Alex C.

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009: 10am

2009-07-15T22:03:00.003-04:00

Slight chances of rain exist for the next 18 hours, followed by about 7 days of fantastic weather with sunny skies, comfortable highs and lows, and low humidity.

Alex C.

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009: 11:15pm

2009-07-14T23:10:00.002-04:00

Expect showers tomorrow morning and some storms possible tomorrow afternoon-Thursday morning. If we can get a little sunshine early afternoon, we could see some isolated severe weather.

The rest of the 7-day features a brilliant weekend and early next week...with low humidities and highs in the 80-85 degree range.

Alex C.

Monday, July 13th, 2009: 10pm

2009-07-13T21:54:00.003-04:00

Beautiful day for tomorrow, followed by chances for storms Wednesday and Thursday. Most numerous storms will be Wednesday night/Thursday morning. After this storm it will lead to one of the most beautiful weekends we have seen in mid July.

Alex C.

Sunday, July 12th, 2009: 8:30am

2009-07-12T08:25:00.002-04:00

Slight (20-30%) chances of storms exist over the next 6 days. Highs will be in the mid 80s today and tomorrow, in the upper 80s Tuesday, around 90 Wednesday, and in the middle 80s for the rest of the period. Lows will settle in the upper 60s most of the week.

Alex C.

Saturday, July 11th, 2009: 10am

2009-07-11T09:52:00.003-04:00

15% chance of damaging winds >58mph and hail >1" in diameter for our area today. A few severe cluster of storms could impact the area this afternoon, especially the east and south parts of the area. The main threat with these storms will be downbursts and microbursts, which are quick burst of heavy winds. Lightning and heavy rain is also possible...stay tuned....

Alex C.

Saturday, July 11th, 2009: 12:30am

2009-07-11T00:22:00.002-04:00

30% chance of severe weather over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky today...main threats damaging winds and large hail...stay tuned...

Rain and storms will be most prevalent on Sunday, with more scattered storms Monday-Wednesday. Skies will clear for late week. Temps will stay around the upper 80s-lower 90s all week. I will be posting on severe weather tomorrow...

Alex C.

Wednesday, July 8th, 2009: 10pm

2009-07-08T21:53:00.003-04:00

The next two days will be quite hot, with Friday being very humid. Next chance of storms comes Saturday, where there could be a few strong storms around. It will continue to be warm and humid before the storms exit Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday will be warm and dry, with a chance of storms coming in mid week.

Alex C.

Tuesday, July 7th, 2009: 9:45pm

2009-07-07T21:37:00.002-04:00

Still working on my 7-day graphic, so here is the text version:

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 85 Low: 67
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 89 Low: 66
Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 93 Low: 72
Saturday: 40% chance storms. High: 89 Low: 72
Sunday: 30% chance storms. High: 87 Low: 70
Monday: Partly cloudy. High: 86 Low: 68
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 89 Low: 69

Alex C.

Monday, June 6th, 2009: 10:15pm

2009-07-06T22:13:00.002-04:00

Warm summer weather will continue through Friday, as temperatures will range from 86-91 in the afternoon and in the 67-71 range in the early morning. It will be dry until the weekend, when a slight storm chance enters into the forecast. Temperatures will remain the same through the weekend and into the first part of early next week.

Alex C.

Independence Day 2009: 5:30pm

2009-07-04T17:33:00.002-04:00

Rain beginning to break up to the west...

Southern Indiana and Louisville: The light rain we have now will continue to get lighter through 7pm, and should be stopped or just as sprinkles by 7:30-8pm. The rain has really broken up into Illinois. We could still have isolated showers/sprinkles through the evening, but nothing widespread. Looking better...

Central Kentucky will see rain continue through a lot of the evening, but could become light enough in some areas to shoot some fireworks around 10, especially the closer you are to Louisville.

Alex C.

Independence Day 2009: 12:45pm

2009-07-04T12:43:00.002-04:00

Rain about to begin in our parts of the area...
From the NWS: UPDATED TO DOWNSCALE THUNDERSTORM CHCS (MAINLY NORTH) CHANGED WORDING TO ISOLATED AS WEAKENING MCS MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS WITH LEADING EDGE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR.

However, the storm that they are talking about extends from Corydon to St. Louis right now. However, if it does weaken, we will only see light showers here. From now until about 6pm, however, expect a fairly good threat of light to at times moderate showers. After 6pm, the storms will become more scattered for a while.

The question with the evening is whether storms can develop here. There will likely be severe storms going on in southern Kentucky SOUTH of the warm front, but with no sun and a rain soaked atmosphere, it is questionable whether we will see more widespread showers in the evening. I think there is still a chance of showers, but the threat may be going down. Stay tuned...

Alex C.

Friday, July 3rd, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-07-03T21:33:00.004-04:00

There is a good bet for storms sometime tomorrow...here's the rundown...

For the early morning, don't worry too much about a storm chance. The chance will be greatest west of I-65 at noon, and the chance will increase in the afternoon with heating. I don't think these afternoon showers/storms will be that significant, and there may be a gap over parts of the area, especially outhern Indiana, that would allow cookouts to proceed under cloudy skies.

However, the biggest area of storms will come through the area sometime between 7-11pm. The timing will be crucial! Some of these storms could be strong, so stay tuned...I will be posting a lot tomorrow here and on facebook to let you know what to expect for the 4th...

Alex C.

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009: 10:15pm

2009-07-02T22:13:00.004-04:00

Here is your forecast and your 4thcast...

The main action from this storm could end up being in the afternoon, and end before the fireworks, but there could also be two rounds of storms. I will try to have an answer on rain for the fireworks tomorrow...besides that...the weather looks great for the rest of the next week, with near normal temps for July...

Alex C.

Wednesday, July 1st, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-07-01T21:25:00.005-04:00

The forecast has nice weather except for the 4th of July weekend! The chance of storms looks to come in the afternoon or evening. It is not a guarantee that we will see these storms come through on the 4th depending on the location of the warm front. After the weekend, it will be nice yet again with warm but not humid weather in the 80s.

Here are the details on the 4th of the July with "The Final 15: Weather 4thcast".

Alex C.

Tuesday, June 30th, 2009: 10pm

2009-06-30T21:58:00.004-04:00

Hopefully you have noticed the new look to my forecasts now...

I have a new 24 hour forecast, and a new look to the the 7 day. Besides the order in which things are placed, the biggest change is with the weather threat numbers. They range from 1-10, with one being a day with "no hazards". As you can see, that text is below the number (beside in the 24 hour forecast).

So, a couple nice days upcoming through Friday. I have a weather threat of 3 for the 4th because of the possibility of storms in the afternoon and evening, which could interrupt activities for the 4th. After this, we will continue to be warm but not very humid into early next week.

Alex C.

Monday, June 29th, 2009: 3:30pm

2009-06-29T15:32:00.002-04:00

Here is the forecast...enjoy the great temperatures and low humidities. The only question in this forecast is the storms on the weekend, which could occur during the afternoon and evening on the 4th. It is something that I will be keeping an eye on closely. We will likely either get storms or hot weather again...

Alex C.

Sunday, June 28th, 2009: 9pm

2009-06-28T20:53:00.003-04:00

A nice week ahead with low humidities until the weekend. There is the potential for another slight cold front to drop into the area, bringing temperatures to near 80 on Wednesday...

Humidities will increase slightly by the weekend, with a slight chance of storms by Sunday...

Alex C.

Thursday, June 25th, 2009: 4pm

2009-06-25T16:06:00.002-04:00

Slight chance of just some summer storms tonight and tomorrow morning, before we begin to clear tomorrow afternoon. We will have more warm and humid weather through Sunday. There are some storms possible on Sunday.

Monday-Thurday's weather will not be as humid, and it will actually be pleasantly warm. It will get more humid towards late next week.

Alex C.

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009: 3pm

2009-06-24T17:53:00.002-04:00

There is a pretty good bet of showers and storms tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Some isolated storms could be severe, but the threat of that is very small. If anything, we could see some gusty winds in the storms.

The heat will continue to be on through the weekend before the next storm system arrives on Sunday on storms. After this, we will see a brief cooldown into the middle 80s.

Alex C.

Monday, June 22nd, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-06-22T21:19:00.001-04:00

The 7 day forecast includes many days in the 90s for then next week. There will be no good storm chances in the next 7 days, and the chances on Saturday and Sunday are very slim...

Alex C.

Fathers Day 2009: 4pm

2009-06-21T15:56:00.002-04:00

A fairly simple 7 day here as temperatures remain nearly steady. There will be chances of storms at times throughout the early and late week...

Minor potential for severe weather this Father's Day afternoon and evening. From the SPC: THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

This will be nothing major but at least a topic of interest for places north of the river west of I-65...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 6/19/09: 10PM

2009-06-19T21:53:00.006-04:00

Tornado watch north of Louisville until 3am...

Storms are developoing to our west and northwest and they are severe...

The storms that southern Indiana should be most concerned about currently are the storms in southern Illinois that are south and west of the watch box. These storms are moving east, and that would take them through at least part of southern Indiana. There is also a possibility that there could be storms develop further west in central and southern Missouri, and also slightly further south in Illinois...take a look at the SPC maps...

We have a 5% chance for tornadoes tonight and a 30% chance of damaging hail along and north of the Ohio...

...and a 30% chance for damaging winds. If you look real closely...you will see the damaging surplus line come down to the Clark/Floyd county line, and the 45% from Salem and north/northeast...

Stay tuned throught the night on this developing situation...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 6/18/09: 9:50PM

2009-06-18T21:49:00.002-04:00

Severe threat over for tonight...we'll see what materializes for tomorrow...

Ryan Hoke intercepted 3 small tornadoes and a large wedge tornado while storm chasing yesterday...visit http://ryanweather.blogspot.com to see his incredible video and pictures. In his video, he gets 250 yards away from a 1/2-3/4 mile wide tornado...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 6/18/09: 2:45PM

2009-06-18T14:41:00.003-04:00

What a crazy storm this morning...many power lines and trees down across the area...some flooding noted as well...

However, we are not done with the severe weather yet. This storm looks small and very far away, but it is none the less severe. The SPC is expected further development to the west and northwest of this storm. The sun is out here, and it is 90 in St. Louis, so there is nothing to stop these storms from incredeasing in coverage and intensity.

We are under a 30% chance of more damaging winds for this evening and tonight. As you also see on this map, part of the midwest is in a 45% range, and that is the weather we will have to watch to see if it comes our way...

Now, tomorrow is another interesting situation...

The 45% chance area is north of I-64 for tomorrow. The timing and positioning of outflow boundaries is more than crucial to this forecast, and the timing and severity of these storms will be influenced by these factors. Still, widespread damaging winds are certainly possible over the area, especially southern Indiana...stay tuned...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 6/18/09: 9:30AM

2009-06-18T09:39:00.003-04:00

Severe storms complex will move through the area, mainly impacting places along and west of I-65 with severe weather. Damaging winds are the main threats...

Storms may redevelop this afternoon, but these will likely begin along or south of the Ohio River.

Not much time to post now...but moderate (45%) risk of severe weather along and north of I-64...more later...

Alex C.

Wednesday, June 17th, 2009: 9:15pm

2009-06-17T21:16:00.005-04:00

Here is the forecast for the next 7 days...highlighted by the many chances of severe weather and extreme heat...

The severe risk has ended for tonight except for central and southern Kentucky, and even that activity is waning.

Severe Opportunity #1: Thursday late morning-afternoon:

The SPC has Louisville and points southeast in a 30% chance of severe weather...and the rest of the area in a 15% chance of severe. This will not be anything widespread, but some severe weather is possible. Theses storms will intensify around noon, and it will depend on where they begin and how strong they get to see who will get the most severe weather. If southern Indiana does see any activity, the main severe threat will be large hail.

If we do not see storms, it will indeed be very warm and humid. Highs could reach 90 with no rain, and dewpoints in the 70s will bring heat indexes close to 100! Stay cool...

This will continue into Friday, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices near 100 again.

Severe Opportunity #2: Friday evening

Most of the area is in a 30% chance of severe weather for Friday. With very warm temps and dewpoints in place, along with many other aspects of severe weather in place, we could see a violent outbreak of severe storms. This from the SPC:
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT STRONGLY FAVORS ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE EVENING.ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP BY 18Z THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD WITHIN MEAN FLOW APPROACHING 50KT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE...POSSIBLY A DERECHO.

Remember this is not guaranteed...but there is the potential. For those who do not know what a derecho is...here's a picture and a brief description from Wikipedia:

A derecho (from Spanish: "derecho" meaning "straight") is a widespread and long-lived, violent convectively induced straight-line windstorm that is associated with a fast-moving band of severe thunderstorms in the form of a squall line usually taking the form of a bow echo. Winds in a derecho can be enhanced by downburst clusters embedded inside the storm. These straight-line winds can exceed 100 mi/hr (160 km/hr). Tornadoes sometimes form within derecho events, although such events are often difficult to confirm due to the additional damage caused by straight-line winds in the immediate area.

So, a lot to watch for in the next couple of days...stay tuned...I will post as much as possible or needed...

Alex C.

Tuesday, June 16th, 2009: 12:30pm

2009-06-16T12:34:00.002-04:00

Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 6pm for southern Indiana and northcentral Kentucky along and west of I-65. A line of severe storms is moving into western Kentucky at this time. The worst of the weather as it is now will stay south of the river, but if the storms on the north part of the line intensify, severe storms will become more likely over southern Indiana...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Tuesday, June 16th, 2009: 10am

2009-06-16T09:56:00.002-04:00

Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening...

I am forecasting the potential of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. All of the proper severe weather elements are in place, except for the fact that there will not be much clearing this afternoon. Assuming this is overcome, WNW winds aloft combined with ESE winds at the surface will cause rotating storms this afternoon. This will bring the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

The SPC maps are not at all congruent with my thinking, so I will not post them at this time. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for us, however. Marc Weinberg shared this morning that he thinks a moderate risk should be placed from Shepherdsville, KY, to Salem, IN, for the threat of tornadoes...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Monday, June 15th, 2009: 5pm

2009-06-15T16:52:00.004-04:00

Very interesting week of weather upcoming, and my blog will cover every moment of it...

We will start out with a chance of storms tonight, but that will fade away into a warm, humid, morning tomorrow.

There will be 3 major weather headlines for the week...here they all are, in order...

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night: A stationary front will be lifting northward and will be the focusing mechanism for storms in this time period. The following is the SPC map for tomorrow, with a 30% chance of severe weather southwest of Louisville.

They say that a moderate risk may be put into place, but for now it is just a slight risk. The highest concentration severe storms will be north of where the stationary front sets up. The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes and large hail are possible close to the stationary front, which will most likely be in western/southern Kentucky.
Thursday-Friday: We will see the hottest weather of the summer thus far. Highs will be in the lower-mid 90s, and humidity will be very high, iwth dewpoints in the 70s possible. Stay tuned and take your normal precautions for being in hot weather.
Friday night/Saturday: The SPC indicates a 30% chance of severe weather for Friday night over southern Indiana. With hot temperatures and high humidity in place, severe storms are certainly possible (see map below and stay tuned).

Alex C.

Friday, June 12th, 2009: 10pm

2009-06-12T22:05:00.003-04:00

Here is the forecast for the next 7 days...

The best chance for strong storms will be Sunday and again on Tuesday. These storms will most likely not be severe, and will end by Wednesday, when we will begin a warming trend.

Alex C.

Thursday, June 11th, 2009: 7pm

2009-06-11T19:06:00.002-04:00

Here is your forecast...big news is tornado watch currently in affect until 1 am for southern Indiana and northcentral Kentucky.

Storms are severe now south of the river, with tornado warnings for Leitchfield. Those storms will stay south of Louisville. A secondary severe threat may be coming out of central Indiana...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Sunday, June 7th, 2009: 8:30am

2009-06-07T08:21:00.004-04:00

Here is your forecast for the area for the week. I'm off to summer camp and will not be posting again until Wednesday night...

Meanwhile, we will have a few very warm days. We will see a slight chance of storms Monday afternoon, with more widespread storms late Monday night. Those storms could be strong, with a slight risk of severe storms west of I-65. Tuesday could have some more numerous storms in the afternoon. After this system moves through, we will see very pleasant weather.

My weather friend Ryan Hoke is storm chasing in the Plains through the 19th. To see stories of his adventures, pictures, and video, you can go to one of these sites:

Alex C.

Friday, June 5th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-06-05T21:23:00.002-04:00

Here's the new forecast for the area...

A very cool night tonight will lead to a few warm days in a row. Next storm system will come in with isolated storms on Monday and more widespread storms Tuesday, before another slight cooldown...

Alex C.

Thursday, June 4th, 2009: 4pm

2009-06-04T16:08:00.002-04:00

For information on my lightning video...see the previous post (below)...

So much for my forecast for today...I think all meteorologists will agree that we completely blew the forecast for today. I certainly thought that the clouds, at least the low clouds, would clear sooner, and we would get around 70. However, it is 4pm and my weather station says 59!!! On June 4th, really?

I think that the clouds will stick around long enough to keep the temps from falling to the low 50s tonight. What happens tonight is actually indicative of the temperatures for the next few days. If my forecast for tonight is correct, the temps will get to around 80 on Friday and into the upper 80s for Saturday. Also, I forecast that we will see lower 90s for Sunday and Monday. However, if temps go into the lower 50s tonight, temps over the course of the next few days wil be about 3-5 degrees cooler than I have forecasted.

If my forecast is right, hot weather will be the order for Sunday, and very hot and humid weather will be in store Monday, with just isolated storms. Another humid day will be in the works for Tuesday as our next storm system comes in. I think that with the moisture at least, I should at least mention the potential for strong storms Tuesday. The storm system will clear by late Wednesday...

Alex C.

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009: 9pm

2009-06-03T20:50:00.003-04:00

I am making my video and pictures of the incredibly close lightning strike from Tuesday night available to the public through Saturday at 8pm. Please email your request of the video and pictures to hookedonweather@aol.com, and I will email them to you on Saturday night. To view the photos...see the previous post. The video was not uploaded to the blog, so that is only available upon request. This media can then be reproduced upon my consent...just so that I get the credit for the pictures and video...thank you...

The forecast has storms ending to our south this evening. Tomorrow will be a very cool, dull day in the morning, but we will see things turn for the better by Friday. If this storm clears quickly tomorrow, we will see lows in the 50s tomorrow night...

Next storm system brings a chance of storms Monday, with isolated storms on Sunday and Tuesday. We will have a brief cooldown mid next week before a warm up for the latter part of the week...

Alex C.

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009: 10pm

2009-06-02T22:10:00.005-04:00

Here is your 7-day forecast...discussion below...

Storms raced in this evening, some severe, and were moving further ahead of the front than expected. Expect to see more storms tomorrow...and end by early Thursday morning...

Some forecasts are showing that the rain will stick around through Thursday, which would hold highs in the upper 60's. I think that these storms will help force the front through by Thursday morning, and we could see some clearing in the afternoon...

A quick weekend warmup will preclude another storm system, bringing summerlike storms to the area early next week! Note: It will not be a wash out, just some common 15-30 minute summer storms. Most widespread storms will be seen on Monday...

Tonight I got some spectacular video of lightning. I cannot upload the video because of dial-down internet, but here are some still from it.

You cannot tell from these pictures, but the lightning was so close that the thunder and lightning were indistinguishable in time. Next time I'm on hispeed internet, I'll upload the video...

Alex C.

Monday, June 1st, 2009: 9pm

2009-06-01T20:55:00.003-04:00

Get ready for a hot and humid day tomorrow...temps will be nearing 90 and humidity will be much higher than today.

A storm system will impact the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, giving a decent chance of storms. Severe storms are not expected, and if any would occur, they would be very isolated (1 or 2). These storms will end Thursday morning.

It will be nice for the end of the week until another storm system impacts the area at the end of the weekend and early next week...

Alex C.

Sunday, May 31st, 2009: 9:40pm

2009-05-31T21:40:00.002-04:00

The worst of yesterday's forecasted severe storms ended up in Indianapolis, where damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes were reported.

The next couple days will be VERY WARM! The next system will bring a storm chance on Wednesday, before we clear out again. After a dry period, another system may arrive by next Sunday...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 5/30/09: 5:15PM

2009-05-30T17:11:00.001-04:00

Severe thunderstorm watch until 12am midnight EDT...

From the SPC: inside the watch area there is a 20% chance of tornadoes, 50% chance of winds >58mph, 50% chance of hail >1" in diameter, and a 30% chance of winds >70mph...

Storms will probably be in the western part of the area after 7pm...and in Louisville after 8:30pm...stay tuned...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 5/30/09: 3:30PM

2009-05-30T15:25:00.002-04:00

Still awaiting storms to develop...there are some indications that storms could be developing now around St. Louis and central Illinois. These storms should continue to develop this afternoon, and the severe threat still exists. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with isolated tornadoes and large hail secondary threats...

I will be out for the evening but will try to post updates when the chances arise...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 5/30/09: 1pm

2009-05-30T12:57:00.002-04:00

No changes from SPC forecast...see previous post for more on that...

Storms look to be a little later than expected, with expected time frame on I-65 being after 4pm...Damaging winds, large hail, and a few brief tornadoes are still possible...stay tuned...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 5/30/09: 10am

2009-05-30T09:55:00.002-04:00

5% chance of tornadoes around the area this afternoon...

15% chance of damaging winds >58mph, and large hail >1" in diameter...

Storms have begun to develop across Illinois and Missouri, and is moving east and southeast. Eventually, these storms will run into our area and strengthen. From the SPC: STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO SMALL...FORWARD- PROPAGATING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/BANDS...PERHAPS WITH SPORADIC/EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR THE OH RVR IN SRN IND/NRN-CNTRL KY...WHERE LOW TO MID LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE GREATEST. STORMS COULD YIELD SVR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

Definitely something to keep an eye on for this afternoon. I think that the storms will probably bring a couple tornado warnings to our area this afternoon, especially over southern Indiana, before the system turns into a linear based line bringing damaging winds to the eastern part of the area...

Alex C.

Friday, May 29th, 2009: 9:15pm

2009-05-29T21:14:00.002-04:00

Immediate weather headline is the severe weather possible on Saturday...

With this storm system, we will see a rush of warm air tomorrow afternoon followed by a cold front. We will have great midlevel winds, but maybe not as great of instability. However, the available energy will spark storms. Some of these storms could produce large hail, damaging winds. A few isolated tornadoes are possible as well, depending on how the storms set up. I will be posting throughout the day tomorrow on this situation...The SPC currently has us in a 15% chance of severe weather, but say that threat could change based on the timing...

After this storm, we will have a warm early week with highs in the upper 80s before the next storm system comes in midweek...

Alex C.

Thursday, May 28th, 2009: 7:30pm

2009-05-28T19:30:00.002-04:00

Less humid weather will arrive for tomorrow, but it won't last too long. Humidity will return Saturday, and there will be a chance for storms Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday will be warm, with Monday being more humid before our next rain chance midweek...

Alex C.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009: 9:15pm

2009-05-27T21:15:00.003-04:00

Storms out to the west to affect the region tonight...

Some strong storms near Evansville will be heading into our area after midnight. These storms could contain lightning, heavy rain, and some gusty winds. Severe weather is NOT expected.

Saturday night and Sunday night could be interesting in the weather department...
We have a slight risk of severe on Saturday and Sunday for the northern and western parts of the area (see map). This indicates a 30% chance of severe weather. Both of these instances of possible severe weather would be in the evening or nighttime hours, and the main threats would be damaging winds. Something to keep an eye on...

Meanwhile, the humid summer pattern will continue for much of the next week, with the exception of Friday and Tuesday...

Alex C.

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009: 9pm

2009-05-26T20:51:00.002-04:00

Hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend...

Storms are over for this evening...storm chances will be most widespread tomorrow, and the system will move away on Thursday. The storms tomorrow will be slowmoving like the past few days, with the storm rolling in, staying, and when it leaves, the sun will return. It's your standard summer weather pattern...

After this, things will clear out for a great weekend, before warming into the mid-upper 80s for early next week...

Alex C.

Friday, May 22, 2009: 8:30pm

2009-05-22T20:35:00.002-04:00

Storm chances for the long holiday weekend...

Tomorrow's rain chances will be isolated, but Sunday's will probably end up being more scattered than isolated. I'll have to bring that rain chance up by tomorrow night I would suppose if model trends stay the same.

Memorial Day and Tuesday will see the most widespread storms. After this long-winded system, we will be drying out by the end of next week...

Alex C.

Thursday, May 21, 2009: 7:45pm

2009-05-21T19:39:00.002-04:00

Isolated storm chances come tomorrow...which will have the lowest chance of the next 7 days. We are entering into a very summerlike pattern, with isolated storms evey afternoon. No need to cancel your plans because of any of these isolated storms, but be aware of the storms that could be near your area...

Alex C.

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-05-20T21:21:00.000-04:00

Nice warm weather will continue through Friday. After that, it will remain warm, but there will be isolated storms will a tropical low coming out of Florida...

Alex C.

Monday, May 18th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-05-18T21:27:00.001-04:00

A cold night tonight will lead to a very nice day tomorrow. Temps will moderate into the 80s for the mid-late part of the week. We could see some isolated storms pop up over the weekend as some tropical moisture coming out of Florida affects the region...

Alex C.

Friday, May 15th, 2009: 4pm

2009-05-15T16:14:00.003-04:00

After a few days of having a rebellious computer, I am back! Though I had these computer problems, my 7-day forecast from Monday has held up fairly well, with the exception of today, which was very warm. The final 3 days of the 7-day from Monday still apply for this weekend and Monday. Only correction would be a slightly higher rain chance tomorrow (70%). Tomorrow mornings low will be in the mid 60s and highs in the low to mid 70s.

We will see some isolated storms tonight and some rain and storms tomorrow. We could see some heavy rain with these. The weather will be colder Sunday with highs in the 60s, but we will be sunny and moderate through the 70s and evening into the 80s towards the end of next week.

I will be back with 7-day forecasts on Monday...

Alex C.

Monday, May 11th, 2009: 8:30pm

2009-05-11T20:26:00.004-04:00

Here is the 7-day forecast...

Of main interest are potential storms that could be coming late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. I think that these storms will be at a weakened state, so only have rain chance in for now. However, if these storms do come earlier, they could be severe, so the SPC has a slight risk of severe for our area.

And yes, you do see that we will have yet another extended period of rain on the way for the middle and latter parts of this week...

Alex C.

4/8/09: 4:30pm

2009-05-08T16:27:00.001-04:00

Storms to the west may be weakening a bit...the atmosphere is not as unstable...stay tuned...

Alex C.

5/8/09: 4:15pm

2009-05-08T16:09:00.002-04:00

Look closely at the circled area. We have a very rare case here for severe weather. That wrap around low pressure area just produced 100mph winds 1 hour ago in Illinois, and may be producing winds >80mph in Evansville right now. If this holds together, we could have some terrible storms for areas along and around I-64.

New SPC numbers say 30% chance of destructive winds over >70mph along and south of I-64. I think the SPC may be taking too far south of a track with this storm. I think southern Indiana has a reasonable chance for this activity as well...stay tuned...

Alex C.

5/8/09: 2pm

2009-05-08T14:08:00.002-04:00

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8pm for all areas of southern Indiana and central Kentucky except for Seymour, IN, North Vernon, etc. Hail to 2" in diameter and damaging winds to 80mph are possible in the watch. Storms right now are not as bad as previously, but they are still packing a punch. The main line is strong and not severe, but it has the potential to be severe. Storms out ahead of the line are becoming severe, and these are the most interesting at this moment. They could begin to rotate and produce isolated tornadoes. For now, there is a threat of damaging winds and large hail. Severe T'storm warning for Breckenridge, Meade, KY, and Perry Co., IN...stay tuned...

Alex C.

5/8/09: 1pm

2009-05-08T12:54:00.002-04:00

Here are the storms that are moving our way...

This tornado watch (WEST of us) has a chance of tornadoes...hail to 2.5" in diameter, and winds to 105 mph (from the SPC).

SPC's new numbers have along and south of I-64 in a 5% chance of torandoes, and a 30% chance of damaging winds and hail. Expect tornado watch for us in the next few hours...

We may have those isolated tornadoes because of the northern extent of this line (note the arrow moving northeast). Winds have been over 100mph in Missouri with this storm. Don't think it will be that bad here, but isolated tornado threat definitely exists along with winds and hail.

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 5/8/09: 9:45am

2009-05-08T09:43:00.002-04:00

Derecho ongoing this morning across Missouri...

This line of storms is producing 80mph winds and higher in southern Missouri right now. These storms are moving east, and occasionally more northeast across the state. These storms will move into Kentucky this afternoon, and possible into southern Indiana as well. The SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for us, that being a 15% chance of damaging winds and large hail and a 2% chance of a tornado, with higher %'s west of us. I think that we should have higher %'s in the region right now, with sun coming out and dewpoints in the lower 60s. This heating will inhibit storms this afternoon. The only question will be how far north these storms come. I do not see them making it north of Paoli or Salem. Stay tuned...

Alex C.

Friday, May 8th, 2009: 9:40am

2009-05-08T09:40:00.002-04:00

Updated 7-day forecast...storm alert begins in the next few minutes...

Alex C.

Thursday, May 7th, 2009: 9:45pm

2009-05-07T21:39:00.001-04:00

Storm chance the next 36 hours...with rain diminishing on Saturday. Any storms could be strong because of the unstable atmosphere...

Alex C.

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-05-06T21:36:00.002-04:00

Slight risk of severe storms tomorrow...isolated severe wind gusts possible...rain will continue into Friday and Saturday as well. Some minor flooding is possible. Besides this, Sunday-Wednesday will be nice and with a warming trend...

Alex C.

Cinco de Mayo 2009: 10pm

2009-05-05T21:58:00.002-04:00

No, I'm not really into Mexican festivities, but Cinco de Mayo is just fun to say!

Forecast is just slightly changed...I think the best storm chance will be Friday. Click on image for larger view...

Vortex2 is a new tornado research project going on this spring and next spring...for more info, go to www.vortex2.com .

Alex C.

Monday, May 4th, 2009: 10pm

2009-05-04T21:56:00.002-04:00

A nice day tomorrow before rain returns...

Wednesday technically has a slight risk of severe, but don't think much of it besides it is another day of rain. The rain Thursday will be mainly early, and rain may return again by Friday night. Any rain Sunday will be early in the morning...

Alex C.

Oaks Day 2009: 4pm

2009-05-01T16:07:00.003-04:00

2-3 inches of rain possible the next 3 days...chance of rain around Derby post time...

Alex C.

Thursday, April 30th, 2009: 4pm

2009-04-30T16:08:00.003-04:00

Severe weather chances inhibited by clouds...

Though I have hyped some type of severe weather for Friday, and even for some today, the chances of severe weather are decreasing. There could be an isolated severe storm this evening, but this activity will not be organized. I have the Oaks code level at ORANGE, but I will not knock that down to YELLOW. Again, and severe weather we see tomorrow will be isolated, and the greatest threat will be heavy rain for the day.

Many people are left wondering about Derby day. I think that the best chances for rain will be Saturday morning and Saturday night, but there could be some isolated showers in the afternoon. Sunday night will see more rain, which will continue through Monday. 1-2" of rain could occur through Tuesday. After this rain, our weather pattern will FINALLY settle down.

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009: 8pm

2009-04-29T20:03:00.002-04:00

Chaotic weather pattern to continue...

The SPC has the area in a 15% (slight) risk of severe weather for tomorrow and Friday.

Tomorrow's situation is quite interesting, considering the timing. The chance for severe weather will be around noon. The wind fields will be such that we could see some isolated severe weather with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible (according to the SPC). Friday's situation looks more threatening to me, as we could see some damaging winds on Friday night with the line of storms coming through Friday night.

Personally, I think that it is POSSIBLE that we could see severe weather tomorrow, but not likely. Something to keep an eye on. Friday night could be serious if we get some instability. Mid-level winds aren't great, but it's still something to watch.

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009: 8pm

2009-04-28T19:54:00.003-04:00

This is not a joke...there is a chance of rain for the next week!

The chance of rain showers will be smallest over the next 36 hours, before a better rain chance comes in for Thursday late afternoon. Friday night looks like it could hold some severe storms, as the SPC has put us in a 30% chance of severe weather. The setup is similar to many that I have seen in the past, and if it plays out, we will see some crazy weather Friday afternoon/night.

In case my south-central Indiana readers haven't picked up on it yet, the labels of the days represent popular Derby Festival events: The Great Steamboat race, the Pegasus Parade, and of course Oaks and Derby. I just know that some people further north of Louisville may not be so familiar with these events.

Anyway, Derby looks dry in the afternoon, but there may be lingering showers in the morning. Right now, I would really have to say that we will not see rain after sunrise on Derby.

There will be a chance of isolated showers on Sunday, before a better chance on Monday. We may finally start to dry out by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

As a final point, it should be noted that we COULD see 2-3 inches of rain over the next week...stay tuned...

Alex C.

2009-04-27T20:29:00.003-04:00

Here comes the rain...

There is simply no way to avoid the truth of this situation on Derby Week, it is going to rain! There is a chance of rain every single day this week. I think the best chances of rain at this point are tonight and tomorrow, and then again on Friday, where we could see some stronger storms. I've seen this scenario many times before, and the rain chances through Monday are not exaggerated...

Alex C.

Friday, April 24th, 2009: 4:45pm

2009-04-24T16:43:00.002-04:00

Very warm through the weekend and on Monday. The middle of next week will hold storm chances, before we hopefully clear for Oaks and Derby Day.

alex C.

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009: 7:15pm

2009-04-23T19:09:00.001-04:00

After a few renegade storms developed this afternoon, we WILL go into sunny and warm temperatures for the rest of the weekend and into Monday of next week before the next storm system moves in...

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009: 8:30pm

2009-04-21T20:16:00.001-04:00

After some sleet today! warmer weather is on the way for the rest of the week...

Alex C.

Monday, April 20th, 2009: 7pm

2009-04-20T19:00:00.003-04:00

Here's the new 7-day forecast...

I hope that all of you who went to Thunder had a good time...I had a great time. I will have some pics of Thunder up when I can get all my material organized!

We are going to see a considerable warm up after we can get through the next 2 days. Temps will be in the 80s!!! by Friday. Enjoy!!!

If any of you would like to add pictures of Thunder or any other Derby event, simply email me...

Alex C.

Thunder Over Louisville 2009: 11:30am

2009-04-18T11:35:00.002-04:00

Have a great Thunder Over Louisville!!!

Alex C.

Thursday, April 17th, 2009: 7pm

2009-04-16T18:50:00.003-04:00

The newest forecast brings temps to near 75 for Thunder, with a slight chance of rain towards fireworks time. I really don't think that it will be anything more than a nuisance. Sunday's weather will include rain for a good portion of the afternoon hours. After that storm, temps will rebound as nice weather returns.

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009: 10pm

2009-04-15T21:56:00.003-04:00

Here is the latest 7-day forecast, along with the Thunder forecast. Only change for Thunder is a slight chance of rain around fireworks time...

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 14th, 2009: 7:45pm

2009-04-14T19:46:00.004-04:00

Low clouds will continue for the next 24 hours...

After this, we will have warming temperatures into the 70's for the late week. Saturday will be nice for Thunder, with a chance for rain coming in the evening, possibly for the fireworks. I'm leaving a rain chance out of my forecast for fireworks time, so I'll be watching it carefully. The detailed Thunder Over Louisville forecast is below.

Alex C.

Monday, April 13th, 2009: 9:30pm

2009-04-13T21:28:00.002-04:00

After a day of storm reports of large hail, weather will settle down...

The weather will be dry and warm into the 70's by the end of the week. The forecast for Thunder looks dry and pretty mild, with a chance of rain towards fireworks time. I will have a complete Thunder forecast by Tuesday or Wednesday...

I'm working on improving and changing my blog a little bit, so if you see changes, that's because I'm working on the blog...

Alex C.

UPDATE: 4/13/09: 3:30pm

2009-04-13T15:31:00.002-04:00

Tornado watch in effect until 9pm for the entire area...

Main threat with any storm this afternoon is hail. There have been a few tornado warnings, but nothing has materialized. There has been some hail to quarter sized reported, but this is not a major widespread event. Storms will continue off and on through early evening, with the storms and hail potential continuing...

Alex C.

Easter Sunday 2009: 3:30pm

2009-04-12T15:21:00.002-04:00

HAPPY EASTER!!!

Monday's forecast should be corrected to add the chance of severe storms (below).

Tomorrow late afternoon/night we will see a similar situation to the past few storms: a low pressure system going closeby and giving us some rotating storms. We could see some large hail and an isolated tornado or 2 out of this situation. The best time frame for this would be between 4-10pm tomorrow. Damaging winds do not appear to be much of a threat.

The forecast for Thunder Over Louisville right now has a likelihood of rain early, and then a chance during the air show. This storm may be slower than this, which would increase the threat of storms Saturday and even Sunday...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Thursday, April 9th, 2009: 9pm

2009-04-09T21:05:00.003-04:00

Showers/storms will occur tonight...with some heavy rain possible. There has been a lot of talk about severe weather tomorrow, and I think it is all for not. The moisture values are way to low to support any organized severe weather. We could see some isolated severe storms, but not widespread by any means.

Forecast for Easter remains the same, with a chance of rain/storms towards sunset...

Alex C.

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009: 5:15pm

2009-04-08T17:11:00.002-04:00

7-day forecast...click on forecast for larger view...

We may have some heavy rain tomorrow night and again on Friday. There is a small chance for severe weather yet again as the low pressure system passes very close to us on Friday. This severe event will be smaller than the one on Sunday.

There could be some late afternoon/evening showers/storms on Easter, so be aware of the weather if you are cooking out on Sunday.

The coldest of the weather appears to be over, I don't think we will get below freezing again...

Alex C.

Tuesday, April 7th, 2009: 10pm

2009-04-07T22:06:00.002-04:00

One change to the forecast from yesterday...I have added a storm chance on Sunday night-Monday. My current thinking is that the storms will not hit in the afternoon for any plans you have on Easter, but an Easter dinner may be in question. Stay tuned...

Alex C.