Friday, January 30, 2009
Friday, January 30th, 2009: 5:30pm
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Thursday, January 29th, 2009: 9pm
I will post a new 7-day tomorrow, but not today. Main weather story will revolve on the storm coming in on Monday. This storm could take a few paths. It could go up the east coast, leaving us no snow. It could go just east of the Appalachian mountains, which would bring us some snow, but no more than 6". It could also, as the models are trending, go west of the Appalachians, if that happens, we will be in for a HUGE storm. I won't hype it too much until I know more, but the potential is there for a snowstorm.
For those concerned about the white stuff already on the ground, we should see major melting Saturday and Sunday.
Alex C.
1/27/09-1/28/09 Photo Gallery
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
1/28/09: Noon
After 7 inches of snow and 1" of ice in Borden, Indiana, the precip has stopped falling and the sun is peeking out from behind the clouds.
Because of internet issues, I can not post my pictures on the blog until I get to a place that has hispeed internet. However, if you have any pictures, email them to me at hookedonweather@aol.com.
My power flickered almost constantly from 4-10am, but it is now on and has been for 2 hours...
Alex C.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
1/27/09: 10:15pm
Alex C.
1/27/09: 4:45pm
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES WILLCONTINUE TONIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
It would appear that the majority of the storm will be located over southern Indiana. I really do agree with the NWS now...they seemed to have pinned it down pretty well.
Overall Accumulations: Southern Indiana: 6-10" snow/sleet, 1.25" ice North Central Kentucky: 4-8" snow/sleet, 1" ice
Alex C.
1/27/09: 12:30pm
1/27/09: 9am
4 inches so far in Borden, IN...
There have been some 5-6 inch reports in Beford and Seymour. NWS reports that E-Town/Bardstown have seen 1/2-1" of ice with power outages...
Looking ahead...the HPC indicates that there is a 70% chance for 4 inches of snow over southern Indiana for the next 24 hours, and a 40% chance of 8 inches of snow. South of I-64, there is a 70% chance of more than .25" of ADDITIONAL ice, with a 40% chance over Indiana.
NWS says southern Indiana will see an additional 3-6 inches, mostly tonight and Wednesday morning, with 1-3 inches in north central Kentucky...ice further south.
However, the temps will rise slightly today as we head into a lull in the wintry precip. Late this afternoon, however, another area of precip will arrive. I believe this will be an ice storm with 1/2" ice amounts for north central Kentucky and the counties in Indiana bordering the Ohio River. Further south, even higher ice amounts could occur. Over the rest of southern Indiana, it will be snow/sleet.
After midnight, change over to snow is expected in southern Indiana/north central Kentucky. We should see about 6 hours of snow, which will bring additional accumulations.
Here's the amount rundown...
- Southern Indiana: 3-5 inches already...3-5" more expected, with .25" ice likely before the return of snow tonight. Total Accumulations: 6-10" snow/sleet, .25" ice
- North central Kentucky: 1-3 inches already...2-3" more expected, with .5" ice likely before the return of snow. Total Accumulations: 3-6" snow/sleet, with .5" ice likely before the return of snow.
- For north central Kentucky south of the Bluegrass Parkway (E-town/Bardstown): .5-1" of ice already...additional .75-1" ice later today. Limited snow/sleet accumulations with 1.25-2" ice total. (crippling ice storm)
Will post again around 12:30pm-1pm...
Alex C.
Monday, January 26, 2009
1/26/09: 10pm
With the storm obviously evolving the way that was predicted, I won't change my snow predictions from earlier (see post at 4:22pm). There is a potential for thundersnow overnight tonight.
Keep an eye out for this...from the NWS: For Tuesday late afternoon: WORST CASE SCENARIO IS 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF FZRA TUE NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY. Translation: 1/2 to 3/4 inch of freezing rain for northcentral Kentucky and southern Indiana...For Tuesday night: MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WARNINGS INTO WED LATE MORNING WITH COLD CONVEYOR BELT BRINGING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SLEET AND SNOW.
I will post in the morning if I don't have school...
Alex C.
1/26/09: 5:45pm
John Belski says for tonight: Louisville- 3-6", freezing rain, sleet. e'town-shepherdsville area, 3-5" 1" sleet, freezing rain 3-7 for sou ind.
My predictions are in the 4:22pm post...
I will post again around 9:30pm...
Alex C.
1/26/09: 5:30pm
Tomorrow: 95% CLOSED (exception far south)
Wednesday: 90% CLOSED (exception south)
Thursday: 60% CLOSED (exception Louisville and points south)
See my snow predictions in 4:22pm post...
Alex C.
1/26/09: 4:45pm
This is the NWS thinking for tonight only...
Here is their Winter Storm Warning text...ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING.
See my predictions in the 4:22pm post...
Alex C.
1/26/09: 4:35pm
1/26/09: 4:22pm
1/26/09: 3:50pm
1/26/09: 2:30pm
Interesting...stay tuned for a big update around 4...
Alex c.
1/26/09: 1:40pm
When I type in "47106" into the NWS zip code forecast, (Borden, IN), they have 4 inches of snow for tonight, 4 inches for tomorrow and 2 inches for tomorrow night, which would total to 10 inches. Try your zip code on their website (link on the side of the blog) and see how much they predict for you...
Alex C.
1/26/09: 12:45pm
John Belski's blog is having a chat at 2pm today on his blog (link on the side of my blog).
My predictions remain the same for now...this is kind of a lull before new info starts streaming in between 3-4pm.
The big question with this storm will be temperature. If it is a little warmer tomorrow, we may see an ice storm...stay tuned...
Alex C.
STORM ALERT: 1/26/09: 11:15am
Here is the HPC 4 inch snow forecast for 8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday...
Also, the forecast for 8 inches of snow for 8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday...
Marc Weinberg: 6-9 inches southern Indiana, 3-6 inches along Ohio River, 1-3 snow and ice over north central Kentucky.
Patrick in Seymour: Here are latest projections across the area...
South Central Indiana (Including Seymour, Bedford, North Vernon): 6-9 inches of snow with isolated areas approaching 10 inches. Some sleet may mix in...
Southern Indiana: (Salem, Scottsburg, Paoli...pretty much just north of Louisville) 4-8 inches with some light icing possible.
Northern Kentucky: (Louisville, Bluegrass Park Way): 3-6 inches with a transition to freezing rain/sleet. A quarter inch of ice is possible. (Potential snowstorm and icestorm conditions)
Ryan Hoke: We're still looking good for 5 inches or so, but the amount of ice on top of that is increasing with each model run. The heaviest snow will fall just to our north in Indiana, with 8 or more inches there. If we start seeing colder temperatures at 850mb in the model runs tomorrow, we're in for some heavier snow. For now, I think this will be a moderate snow event tomorrow night with an icy mess on top by Tuesday afternoon. We're still on for a little bit of snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as well, so an inch or two could be appended on to the current 5 inch estimate.
Marcus Barnes: Total accumulations projected 11-12" of snow
I think that out of all of these forecasts, Marc Weinberg is the most likely to be correct for now (as well as Ryan Hoke and Patrick, who forecasted the same thing). I'm not quite convinced of Belski's some >8 inch totals tonight-tomorrow morning if banding occurs. However, this is what makes forecasting snow in this area so fun...stay tuned for more...
Alex C.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Sunday, January 25th, 2009: 8:15pm
My thoughts: Around midnight tomorrow night, a large band of heavy snow comes over the region. Southern Indiana and the counties along the Ohio River will see 3-5 inches of snow with this band, with north central Kentucky seeing 2-4 inches of snow and sleet with .1" ice (freezing rain). Tuesday night-Wednesday morning will have another band of wintry precipitation. Look for 1-2 inches of additional snow/sleet over southern Indiana, with .1-.25" of ice after the snow changes over. North central Kentucky will see mostly ice with up to 1" additional snow/sleet accumulation and around .25" of ice.
Totals: Southern Indiana: 4-7" snow/sleet, .1-.25" ice...North central Kentucky: 2-5 inches snow and sleet, .2-.3" ice.
NWS: The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening until Wednesday morning for the entire southern Indiana/north central Kentucky area. 3-6 inches is likely over these areas, with up to .25" ice.
HPC says a 40% chance of at least 4 inches before 8am Tuesday, and a 10% chance of 8 inches. HPC says a 10% chance of at least 4 inches after 8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday. Also, HPC says a 10% chance of .25" of ice over southern Indiana, and 40% chance over northcentral Kentucky (8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday).
John Belski: My latest thinking is for a burst of snow Monday night in the 3 to 6 inch range. As the second surge of moisture comes in on Tuesday, the snow/mix line is the big question and I just don't have an answer. I think the GFS is pushing it too far north so am tempted to say sleet and snow north of 64 and freezing rain and rain south of 64. Really hard to pinpoint for now. Remember the storm in December. The heaviest snow was supposed to be right through Louisville and in the last 6 hours before it hit....it shifted 20-30 miles to the south. It seems like we are always on the borderline. I can see Vincennes to Seymour getting 8 inches or more....not sure if that will happen in Louisville. HPC still has a moderate icing risk here on Tuesday along with a moderate risk for heavy snow.... even if we go to freezing rain on Tuesday...storm totals still could end up in the 3-7 or 4-8 inch range. No change over to freezing rain...amounts could be higher.
I will be in a high speed internet zone for most of the day tomorrow, so I should be able to take advantage of being homeschooled and post during the morning and afternoon tomorrow. (I will be doing my school while not watching the weather!) Check tomorrow for the latest details...
Alex C.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Saturday, January 24th, 2009: 10:30pm
A very interesting storm is shaping up over our area for Monday night-Wednesday. However, even though these maps look promising for snow, remember the fact that 90% of our huge snowstorms happen right after a cold front comes through. There will be a small clipper tomorrow night before this big storm, but that would not classify as a cold front.
Here's what the NWS and John Belski are saying about this storm:
NWS: THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST HAVING THE MOST IMPACT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KY...WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON TUES. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY...EXPECT MOSTLY ICE...SOME SNOW BUT PRIMARILY SLEET MON NIGHT/TUES WITH FREEZING RA LATE TUES. HAVE RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD. PRELIM NUMS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...THERE COULD BE UP TO A TENTH INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW.SO AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATIONAL THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR TUES NIGHT/WED. THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW/WINTRY MIX LINE WILL SCOOT NORTH TUES NIGHT ALLOWING A GREATER AREA OF IP/FZRA...HOWEVER SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW...
John Belski: Major snowstorm or major ice storm is possible. It all depends on amount of warming aloft. I don't see us getting the 12 inches of snow because we will probably go over to sleet and freezing rain. If it does stay all snow...look for 8 inches or more....and the highest chance for that would be along or a little north of interstate 64. Several inches of snow certainly likely before ice moves in.
My thoughts: Definitely an interesting storm, but I don't think right now that the >6 totals have any place in the forecast for now. My prediction is 2-4" of snow on Monday night-Tuesday, with an additional 1-2" Tuesday night-Wednesday. There could be some ice accumulations Tuesday night-Wednesday as well (HPC has us in moderate risk for .25" ice or more for Monday night). I don't think there will be much ice on Monday night, but Tuesday night could hold more ice.
I will concentrate on this part of the forecast for now, because after this storm, another could follow soon behind it...stay tuned for more tomorrow (Sunday)...
Alex C.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Friday, January 23rd, 2009: 5pm
A nice day today will lead to a COLD weekend, with higs hovering around 30.
I will again spend most of my time discussing the upcoming week. There could be a clipper system with some light snow early Monday morning, but the bigger storm will come on Monday night-Tuesday. The precip type is still very much in question. The precip that falls will be determined by the track. If the low pressure goes to the south through southern Tennessee and north Alabama, we will see light snow. If it goes through southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee, we will see heavier precip. If it goes over our area, we will most likely see ice and rain, but not heavy.
The NWS says:
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT'S HARD TO PIN DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
As you can see, there are many solutions to our forecast, and it is hard to pick out one at this time. Hopefully, there will be more agreement on the storm's path over the weekend, which would allow me to make accurate accumulation predictions.
After this storm, we may see a brief lull on Wednesday before another storm comes through on Thursday-Friday. There are some indications that this storm may be stronger than the early week storm, but it is, of course, much to early to tell mcuh about this storm.
Stay tuned for further details on both of these storms. I might update tomorrrow, and if I don't, I WILL update on Sunday (hopefully with snow accumulations).
Alex C.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Thursday, January 22nd, 2009: 8:15pm
One more day of warm weather...
We will have a slight chance of showers tomorrow, but the warm weather seems to be the bigger story. However, a cold front will knock our temperatures back to around freezing for the weekend.
The big story again revolves around next week as a whole. The models are all over the place with this one, with some saying a snowstorm, others an ice storm, and others all rain. However, Marc Weinberg did say that most (around 90%) of the snow storms that we get in our area come around 24 hours after a cold front comes through. With the cold front coming tomorrow and the storm not coming until early next week, Marc Weinberg does not see a snowstorm for next week.
However, it is something to monitor, as we will have a very active week next week, even after the storm on Monday-Wednesday...stay tuned...
Alex C.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Wednesday, January 21st, 2009: 7:45pm
Ahh...the joy of forecasting...
A nice warm up over the next couple days before a cold front drops our temps again. There may be a few flurries on Saturday, but don't expect accumulations...
The big storm will affect the region Sunday night-Wednesday. The models are all over the place with this one. The GFS, however, has temps in the upper atmosphere warm enough to support some ice at times during this period. At night, there will most likely be some snow. The timing and track, as always, is cruicial, and I, along with many of the other fine meteorologists in our area, will continue to track this storm...
Alex C.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Tuesday, January 20th, 2009: 9pm
Monday, January 19, 2009
Monday, January 19th, 2008: 4:30pm
A picture of my deck after last night's 1" snow...
We could receive a few snow showers/flurries tonight and tomorrow, but not much accumulation at all. We'll have a small warm up before a drop down in temperatures for the weekend. A chance of rain will occur Friday, and a rain/snow mix is possible Monday.
Current model runs suggest that we could have heavy precip for the early next week storm, the question is what temp we will be at...stay tuned...
Alex C.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Sunday, January 18th, 2009: 4pm
Tonight and early tomorrow, I really think we could have an accumulating snow. With some heavier snow showers, we could see around 1". It's not too much, but it's better than what we've have most of this year.
Looking ahead...Tuesday could hold another dusting of snow. The system coming in for Friday will lift the temps into the upper 40s Thursday and Friday before a cool down on Saturday. It will not get to near 60 on Friday like my most recent weather graphic says. I will have a new 7-day up tomorrow.
Alex C.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Saturday, January 17th, 2009: 11:30am
I still think there is the potential for an inch of snow tomorrow afternoon-evening. There could be other light snow showers tonight and Monday.
Confidence of a warmup and storm system from the southwest late next week is less than yesterday. NWS indicates a high of 34 next Friday while I said 59...still a long way out, however.
Alex C.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Friday, January 16th, 2009: 6pm
It was cold enough to throw a cup of hot water into the air, and when it landed, it would freeze on contact. I also tried spraying Windex onto a window, and it froze on contact as well. COLD!!!
I know that a lot of you would love it snow instead of just be cold. So, I will give you a bit of good news...
I believe that we will see 1" of snow on Sunday afternoon-evening. There appears to be a chance for light snow showers Saturday night and Monday as well. Sunday afternoon-evening appears to be the time when we will see the most snow.
There are a few corrections I need to make on this forecast...1st, the date is 1-16-09 (for those who balance their checkbooks while reading this blog). Secondly, the high tomorrow will be 32, not 23.
I'm still thinking we could see a little rain/snow mix on Wednesday night. There will be a warmup Friday ahead of another cold front that will bring us rain and storms Friday night...
Glad to have my digital camera working for me!!!
Alex C.