Tuesday, March 31st, 2009: 5:45pm

Exciting 7 days of weather upcoming...

We have some rain moving through the area right now, and that will continue through the evening. Tomorrow will have some clearing, before the next storm comes in Thursday night-Friday. The SPC has a slight risk along and south of I-64 for Thursday night, but until this verifies, I will keep it at a code GREEN. We will again have a short rain break before another storm on Sunday. Temps will cool down significantly behind this front...

Alex C.

Monday, March 30th, 2009: 7:30pm

No tornadoes in our area from Saturday night...2 touchdown near Evansville. See the NWS site for more details...

Chances for rain come tomorrow late afternoon/night, and again Thursday night and Friday. Temps will be in the 60s for most of the week. New 7-day forecast coming tomorrow...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 3/28/09 8:15pm

Severe thunderstorms rolling through the area...

An expanse of severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect currently...refer to TV and other web sites for the latest. Tornado threat is decreasing, our main severe threat is damaging winds and perhaps some large hail. An isolated tornado is not out of the question...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 3/28/09: 4:10pm

Tornado Watch for western part of area...CODE ORANGE...DANGEROUS...potential for tonadoes, hail, and wind damage.

The SPC has issued a tornado watch until 10pm for the 10% tornado area (seen below). That is south of the river and west of I-65. Southern Indiana remains in a 5% area for tornadoes, and all other threats remain the same.

There have been breaks in the sun in parts of Kentucky, but not yet in Indiana. If we get a few breaks, I think these storms have the potential to make it into the northern part of the area severe. Stay tuned as I will try to post as necessary...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 3/28/09: 1:10pm

New update from SPC...

5% chance of tornadoes...

15% chance for damaging hail north, 30% south

15% chance damaging winds

The key aspect is whether of not we see sunshine...if we do the chance of severe will go up, if we do not, the amount of severe will go down...it is sunny in parts of northern Tennessee now...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Saturday, March 28th, 2009: 10:50am

New 7-day has chance of rain/snow showers tomorrow...

Severe storm chance today will rely on whether or not we get any clearing this afternoon. If we do, we could be in for a rocky weather afternoon and evening.


SPC Tornado outlook: 2% north, 5% south

SPC Hail Outlook: 15% north, 30% south

SPC Wind Outlook: 5% north, 15% south

If we get some breaks in the clouds and the sun comes out, we could see some damaging wind gusts, as well as hail and isolated tornadoes. We will be so close to the counter-clockwise rotation of the storm that tornadoes could become a real threat with sunshine. This is a wait and see situation...

I will update at 1pm...

Alex C.

Friday, March 27th, 2009: 4:40pm

Severe possibilities tomorrow...

We have a 15% chance of severe weather north of the river, with a 30% chance south. The question of these storms is what will happen after the overnight and early morning rains. If the clouds hang around through the afternoon, our severe chances will dwindle. However, if the sun comes out for a considerable amount of time, our chances for severe will go up. As it stands now...we could see some severe weather tomorrow between 6pm-1am. Any storms we see could produce damaging winds. Because the low will be passing nearby, we could see a few isolated tornadoes as well. I will update throughout the day tomorrow on this weather situation.

Meanwhile, we will see rain overnight tonight and tomorrow, which could bring 1-1.5" of rain to the area.

Alex C.

Thursday, March 26th, 2009: 5:20pm

Severe risk dominates the forecast...

There is a slight risk of severe storms south of the river on Friday night. There will be a severe weather/tornado outbreak over the 45% area (below). Any severe weather in Kentucky Friday would include potentially damaging winds and hail.


However, the biggest issue with this forecast for the area will be on Saturday.

As you can see, there is a 30% chance of severe weather for Saturday (Day 3 Outlook). It is usually not good for a 30% to be out 2 days before the anticipated outbreak, because a forecast 2 days out displays a lack of confidence in forecast.

This from the SPC: ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A VERY BROAD AND STRONG LLJ ATTENDANT TO EJECTING UPPER WAVE WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO OH VALLEY AND FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING MENTIONED ABOVE TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVER A LARGE REGION E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND MORE EWD INTO THE ERN GULF STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES.

The exact track of the storm, as well as whether we see destabalization after rains tomorrow night, will determine if we get severe weather Saturday. This is a potential storm. I have seen what storms in the past have done in this situation, but will wait till tomorrow to make a judgment call...

Besides this, we could see 1-1.5" of rain over this weekend's weather...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009: 4:15pm

Here's a new look 7-day forecast for my blog...

The newest function is the hazards code...green for limited hazards, yellow for moderate hazards, orange for dangerous hazards, red for damaging hazards, and black for devastating hazards.

The forecast will bring several chances for rain into the forecast. There could be around 1" of rain in our area through Saturday. There will be a tornado outbreak south in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee on Friday, after a brief cooldown it will begin to warm up again...

Alex C.

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009: 9pm

Rain expected overnight tonight and tomorrow morning...then again Thursday night. As a result of this rain, we will see 1/2-3/4" inch of rain. After a lull on Friday, we will see another round of rain on Saturday. We could see an inch of rain Saturday, before a dramatic, but brief, cooldown.

Alex C>

Monday, March 23rd, 2009: 5:30pm

Here is the forecast for the next 7 days...

Breezy tomorrow, with a chance of showers/isolated storms after midnight tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. A brief warm up again until another storm system Saturday...

Alex C.

Friday, March 20th, 2009: 11am

Forecast is calm and springlike on this first day of spring. We could have some rain/storms Tuesday night/Wednesday, but besides that, we will have a calm 7-day ahead.

Alex C.

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009: 4:30pm

Chance of rain after 2am tonight. There could be an isolated storm, but nothing will be severe. I'm looking for up to 1/2" of rain tonight. After a few cold mornings, we will be in the 60s for the weekend, and the 70s early next week, before another cold front brings rain to the area.

Alex C.

Tuesday, March 17th, 2009: 5:30pm

Storms roll in tomorrow night...

There will be a chance of storms tomorrow night after a wonderfully warm day. These storms are not expected to be severe. After a cooldown Thursday, we will moderate into the 60s and even lower 70s over the course of the week, and into early next week.

Alex C.

Monday, March 16th, 2009: 4:15pm

New 7-day forecast in...

A very nice beginning to the week ongoing. We will see a chance of showers/storms Wednesday night-Thursday morning, followed by a slight cooldown. No severe weather is expected because of a lack of instability (the storms coming at night). After a brief cooldown, we will rebound into the 60s and even the lower 70s by the beginning of next week.

Go Cards in the NCAA Tournament!

Alex C.

Friday, March 13th, 2009: 4pm

A chance of rain tomorrow...

The forecast basically tells the story, a chance of rain for the weekend, with temps moderating through next week.

Alex C.

Wednesday, March 11th, 5:30pm

Chance of snow tomorrow?

Much has been made about a chance of snow tomorrow, but I refuse to buy into it. There could be some flurries, but as to any kind of accumulation, I do not think that will happen in southern Indiana. In parts of Kentucky, there could be a dusting or a little more, but I think that will stay in Kentucky.

A cool week ahead with just one rain rain chance over the weekend...

Alex C.

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009: 6pm

Rain and storms overnight...

There is a great chance of rain and storms overnight...we could see 1/2-1" of rain. There could be some gusty winds in these storms, but because of the overnight timing, we should not see severe weather.

Big cooldown after this front...look at the lows Thursday and Friday! We will rebound into the 50s before a system over the weekend. However, this system will not affect temperatures much.

Alex C.

Monday, March 9th, 2009: 9pm

Lots of rain on the way tomorrow night...

We will see some rain overnight tomorrow, after a day of nearly record highs. These storms could be severe on an isolated basis, but nothing major like the storms Sunday. There will be a big cooldown after this comes through. Enjoy tomorrow...it will be windy but highs could approach 80 with enough sunshine...

Alex C.

STORM ALERT: 3/8/09 2:15pm

Discrete supercells as of 2pm...

5-10% chance for tornadoes this afternoon...

30% chance of large hail >3/4" in diameter this afternoon...

30-45% chance of damaging winds >58mph this afternoon...

STORM ALERT...Severe storms are rampaging through Illinois this afternoon. Later on this afternoon and evening, these storms will move into southern Indiana and northcentral Kentucky. Due to the shear and wind fields in the atmosphere, damaging winds and isolated tornaodes will be possible. The best chance of tornadoes is to the west of I-65. A tornado watch will likely be issued this afternoon for our area. Please stay tuned...I will post again around 4:30pm...

Alex C.

Saturday, March 7th, 2009: 7pm

Severe update...

SPC still indicates 15% chance of severe weather tomorrow. The key will be instability. If the sun peaks out, there will be some severe weather, but with no sun, there would be little or no severe weather. We will see rain and storms, but the question is: Will we see severe storms? Stay tuned...

Alex C.

Saturday, March 7th, 2009: 11:40am

Severe weather opportunity...

Tomorrow afternoon and evening, a storm system will swing through the region. It will be windy and warm, and with dewpoints approaching 60, we could see some severe thunderstorms. The main risk would these storms would be damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. The SPC indicates that our area has a 15% chance of some type of severe weather tomorrow...stay tuned...

Alex C.

Friday, March 6th, 2009: 8:30pm

Warm weather and possible strong storms...

Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the year, with highs in the mid 70s. Sunday will be windy, with a chance of storms. There is a chance of an isolated severe storm or two, but do not expect it to be a widespread event. Tuesday will bring another chance of storms, some possibly strong, as a strong cold front moves through the region. That will knock our highs back into the 40s for late next week.

Alex C.

Thursday, March 5th, 2009: 8:30pm

Spring like for the weekend...

Again, Sunday looks like the best chance for storms, along with Tuesday. It will be in the mid 70s Saturday, but in the 40s by next Thursday.

Alex C.

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009: 6:30pm

Warm up on the way...

Beginning tomorrow, it will be much warmer, and almost springlike by Friday and Saturday. The best chance of rain/storms will be Sunday and Tuesday, with another sharp cooldown after that.

Alex C/

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009: 6pm

Temperatures swing in progress...

After a low of 12 this morning, we will be into the upper 60s and lower 70s by the end of the week. I think we have a chance of storms on Friday, but the best chance would be Saturday and then again on Monday. I think that the instability will be too low to produce severe weather...

Here's an interesting fact for you...today is the day of squares! The date is 03/03/09, which when the month and day are multiplied, it equals the year.

Alex C.

Monday, March 2nd, 2009: 7pm

High low 7-day...

After a low of 12! tomorrow morning, we will be up to 70 by Saturday. No big storm chance except for Saturday...

Alex C.