Sunday, August 31, 2008: 2:15pm

Here is the latest on Gustav and Hanna...

Gustav has 115mph and Hanna has 45 mph winds. Gustav has a predicted landfall winds of category 4, 135mph. Hannah could possibly become a hurricane as well. Here are the two maps of these storms...





Our weather story will remain the same with dry weather through Thursday. Highs will be in the lower 90s most of this period, and the humidity will begin to rise by Tuesday afternoon.

Friday-Sunday are still a question mark with Gustav and Hannah tracks still uncertain. I have a 30% chance of rain/storms for Friday-Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Alex C.

Saturday, August 30, 2008: 5pm

See Gustav discussion below...

First, our weather will continue dry with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday's forecast all depend on the two storms and their tracks, but for now I will insert a 30% chance of rain/storms for these 3 days. Temps during this period will be in the mid 80s.

Gustav is now a CODE PURPLE storm...



Here are the visible and infared satallite images of Gustav...incredible pictures! The eye is very well formed and that proves it's intensification!



Gustav has rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 Hurricane with 150mph winds at this time. The track takes it to the central part of Louisiana. However, many things could divert Gustav from it's current projected track. Take mid level winds for example, if they are strong, Gustav will slam New Olreans, if they are weak, Gustav will stall and travel west right along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans all the way to Houston!

The NHC projects these wind speeds from Gustav...

Use this wind chart in corralation with the map of the track, and you will see that after it passes Cuba, it is expected to become a MONSTER, Category 5 storm by tomorrow afternoon, and by landfall at 2pm Monday (projection), the winds will be 145mph, a Category 4. This will be a very devastating storm to say the least!

I will post on Gustav occasionally, but for up to the minute reports on Gustav and all tropical weather, click on the National Hurricane Center link on the right side of the blog...

And one last thing to think about...here is the track of Tropical Storm Hanna...currently with winds of 50mph.



Where does it go from there and will it become a hurricane? The NHC says that it will not become a hurricane in the next 5 days, but where does it go after this, no one has a sure bet just yet.

Also, Tropical Storm Ike may make an appearance soon...

One final note, the BIG GAME is tomorrow at 3:30pm on ESPN. The matchup, of course, is the Louisville Cardinals vs. the Kentucky Wildcats.

GO CARDS!

Alex C.

Friday, August 29, 2008: 5:15pm

Today is the 3 year anniversary of one of the most destructive hurricanes of all time, Hurricane Katrina. This devastated the city of New Orleans and has left it's mark their forever. Now, Louisiana is under attack from yet another hurricane, Hurricane Gustav.

I will talk about that in just a second, but first I would like to take mention of our weather. I watched a storm developed just to our east in eastern Clark county, IN, and Oldham county, KY, but the sun continues to shine here. There is the potential for an isolated storm this evening, but don't bet on it.

Meanwhile, everyone's grass is dying and the next 5 days will not help the situation at all. It will be dry for the next 5 days with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidities will not be that uncomfortable through Monday, but that's really not the point here...the point is that it is simply TOO dry

Thursday-Friday have a 20% chance of rain/storms, but this is all dependent on the tropical systems we are watching. Highs over these two days will be in the mid 80s with higher humidities.

Now I will discuss the tropics...



As you can see, the tropics are very active right now. Not only do we have Gustav and Hanna to worry about, but there are other storms further to the east that could become tropical storms and/or hurricanes.



Gustav is of main concern to the US right now. As of 3:15pm today, Gustav became a hurricane once again with winds of 75mph. NHC predicts the storm to go towards Louisiana, but of course could hit anywhere from east Texas to Mobile, Alabama. Winds are predicted to be 125mph when it hits the west tip of Cuba, and 120mph when it nears the Gulf Coast.

Alex C.

Thursday, August 28th, 2008: 5:30pm

Code YELLOW is here to stay for a while...



The CPC drought monitor has declared extreme southern Indiana and all of northcentral Kentucky under abnormally dry conditions. A moderate drought is ongoing in southeast Kentucky.

Simply put, we need some rain. If we are going to get some, then it will be tomorrow. I still think there is a 40% chance of showers/storms over our area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temps will be in the upper 80s, and there will be sufficient humidity to produce some rain. However, this will not put an end to the dry period we are having. Also, please note that NOT EVERYONE will get rain, even though we'd like it that way...

Saturday-Thursday all look to be dry as well. Temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with humidities not that uncomfortable through Tuesday. However, humidities will increase towards the middle of next week. But, the dry weather continues no matter what the humidity...

You might be wondering what happened to the chance of rain we could have from Gustav. To see why I took the chance out, take a look at this map...



I took the rain chance out primarily because it appears as if the storm is heading northwest moving inland over Louisiana. If it continues this track, we won't get rain. Basically, it is way too far out for me to put a rain chance in if there's no clue where the hurricane is going...

Tropical Storm Gustav is currently pounding Cuba with heavy rain and 70mph. The NHC predicts landfall in Louisiana, though I think that anywhere from Louisiana east to Panama City, Florida, could see a landfall. The track of a hurricane is just entirely unpredictable, especially this far out. See the map above as a projection, not the actual track. This is where the NHC thinks the storm will go, but 90% of the time, a track made this far out is wrong!!! Anyway, the NHC is still predicting a landfall as a Cat. 3, with 115mph winds.

Also, there is now Tropical Storm Hannah, with 40mph winds. This storm is far away from any immenent landfall in the US, and I'm not sure if this one can hold together to cause any major damage to the US. Here's the track of this one...

Hannah is anticipated to gain winds of 80mph by Sunday.

We will simply have to see how all of this plays out, so keep checking the blog for more on our dry period and these two storms...

Alex C.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008: 5pm

No relief...

Though a few light showers have been meandering across the area this afternoon, no relief from this latest rain shortage has come. Tomorrow will be no different, by skies will clear. Highs will be in the mid 80s.

Friday will bring our last chance of rain for a while. I have put a 40% chance of showers/storms in for Friday afternoon and evening. This could bring some relief, but not as much as we need to stop this latest dry streak.

Then we will have another dry period through at least Tuesday. Temps will rebound into the upper 80s to lower 90s. It will be very dry with not much humidity.

Wednesday may be dry and even hotter, but it all depends on the track of Gustav. We could have some very beneficial rains, or it could just be hot and dry some
more...

Speaking of Gustav, it is now a tropical storm with winds of 50mph. It has gotten stuck over Haiti and Hispanola, and is moving at a mere 3mph. It should gain speed, and regain hurricane strength by sometime tomorrow. The forecast from the NHC is this...



They predict a landfall on the gulf coast between Louisiana and the panhandle of Florida. The NHC is currently predicting winds of 115mph as it hits land on Labor Day.

One note, no major evacuations are taken place yet on the Gulf Coast. The LSU football team will still open it's season vs. Appalachian State at 5pm Saturday on ESPN.

Alex C.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008: 10pm

Fay did not save the day...

Fay has brought a few welcome downpours to a few areas the past couple days. However, today, there was a 5 minute downpour just 5 minutes from here, but at our house, not 1 drop!!! This is a prime example of just how random all of these showers are and how isolated they are...

Tomorrow morning I still believe there is a 30% chance for the Louisville/southern Indiana area to get a band of rain. However, if we don't get it tomorrow morning, we won't get it. Highs tomorrow will be around 80.

Thursday looks fine with sun and highs in the mid 80s.

The next system will make it's move by Friday, bringing us another 40% chance of showers/storms. However, this will not bring the needed relief that we need to get out of our dry spell.

And if we don't get any rain by Friday, then get ready for another dry spell. Saturday-Tuesday will all be dry with highs in the middle to upper 80s. The saving grace will be that our humidities will not be too high.

However, there is a storm that bears watching for the gulf coast and for our next great rain chance. I told you yesterday that Hurricane Gustav would not travel across Cuba as it was forecast yesterday. Check out today's forecast...



It will not cross Cuba and instead will go on the west side before hitting west Florida, or (most likely) heading into the Gulf and hitting anywhere from Texas to the panhandle of Florida. The winds are currently 75mph, but by Sunday, winds are forecasted to be at 120mph.

There is a loop current that goes between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and goes into the Gulf of Mexico, as well as off the Florida straits. This is a place where rapid hurricane intensification could occur. Here is a map of this phenomenon. The red areas are where the current is.



I knew that hurricanes typically intensified in the Gulf of Mexico, but didn't know why until I saw Belski's blog today...

So keep all of this in mind as this storm continues to churn in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico...

Alex C.

Monday, August 25, 2008: 7pm

Grain is pain and rain is gain...

Yes, the grass in our area is beginning to look like a dried up field, and we have had no rain in a long time...and again our chances of rain may be drying up again.

Tonight and tomorrow hold a chance of these isolated showers, but not a good soaking rain. Also, the sun is going to be hidden for a while because of these clouds from Fay. For this reason, I think that tomorrow and Wednesday will have temps staying in the upper 70s, and not making it to 80.

Tomorrow night-Thursday morning, we will have slightly better rain chances thanks to T.D. Fay. I think Wednesday morning holds our best chance of any rain from Fay, as a band of rain could move through. However, I only have a 40% chance of rain in the forecast because it is becoming more likely that all of this rain could miss to the east. I still think some welcome rain is possible, so stay tuned...

Meanwhile, Thursday should have any rain that is over our area ending. Highs will be in the lower 80s.

Friday could be an in between systems day, with temps in the middle 80s.

However, Friday night-Saturday afternoon, a small (30%) chance of showers and storms exists over our area.

After this, Sunday and Monday should be sunny, which is good news for the big Louisville vs. Kentucky football game on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to possibly upper 80s.

And if you're looking for our next best chance of rain after Fay, look to the south as Tropical Storm Gustav is churning through the Caribbean.



Winds are currently 60mph, but they are expected to reach minimal hurricane strength before hitting Hispanola. This track shows the storm tracking directly over Cuba, but I am almost certain it will not do that. It will most likely track along the western coast of Cuba, like Fay, and then on from there. This could affect Labor Day plans in Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.

One last note...in the LLWS championship yesterday, the US captured it's 4th straight crown as Hawaii defeated Mexico 12-3.

Alex C.