Here's the National Weather Service's thoughts. The middle area is 1-2", and the white area is 2-4 inches.
Now take a peek at another one!!! A close call again!
Now, the accuweather forecast! Again, a close call!
Now the watches and warnings map from FOX 41!
So, according to this, if you live in Paoli, Scottsburg, or Salem, it looks like 2-12 inches!
If you're in New Albany to Charlestown, its 1-8 inches.
If you're in the Ville, 1-6 inches.
E'town: 1-3"
Bowling Green, nothing!
A very tight gradient is what we have here! if the track varies just a little, a lot of different things could happen, as mentioned before!
Looking to the northeast for a moment, look at all the snow they will have!
This is just tonight! Add to that this weekends storm and they will have a good 2 feet of snow in some places (maybe even 3 feet)!!!
After saying all this, you may wonder what my opinion is! I've been saying 2-4 inches, but I received an e-mail from Chief Meteorologist Mark Weinberg and he had this to say:
Alex,
They are way underestimating the warm air advection on this system. You absolutely must have a northeast wind from the surface to about 1 mile off the ground to sustain snow here. We will have a southeast wind from the surface up to 1 mile and that always forces a slot of very warm air into the mid levels of the atmosphere despite what any computer model says. That always leads to a transition as well and therefore I am starting with snow Friday night, then rapidly changing to all rain or rain/slush early Saturday morning around 7-9am, then finally back to snow around 7-9 pm Saturday. The accumulation in Louisville should be 1” to maybe 2” of snow and 2” to maybe a generous 5” in the extreme northern slice of Kentuckiana (like Seymour/Vernon/Bedford).
They are way underestimating the warm air advection on this system. You absolutely must have a northeast wind from the surface to about 1 mile off the ground to sustain snow here. We will have a southeast wind from the surface up to 1 mile and that always forces a slot of very warm air into the mid levels of the atmosphere despite what any computer model says. That always leads to a transition as well and therefore I am starting with snow Friday night, then rapidly changing to all rain or rain/slush early Saturday morning around 7-9am, then finally back to snow around 7-9 pm Saturday. The accumulation in Louisville should be 1” to maybe 2” of snow and 2” to maybe a generous 5” in the extreme northern slice of Kentuckiana (like Seymour/Vernon/Bedford).
I hope this helps and don’t forget to credit me if you are using any of my forecast.
Marc Weinberg
WDRB Fox 41 Chief Meteorologist
Marc Weinberg
WDRB Fox 41 Chief Meteorologist
That's as good of credit I can give you, Marc!!!
No picture for his map that I can find yet, but I will try to find it! He gives a pretty convincing argument for what he has to say! You may want to take his word for it!
His map is most like the NWS map!
christmas forecast stays the same!!
Alex C.
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