Severe Storms Possible

Well, well, well, we find ourselves in a tricky situation. It is October 17, 2007. It is 80 degrees. There is a storm system headed our way. What does that mean? Storms are on their way.

Possibly bad storms. Take a look at this.

You made be wondering why I put almost the exact same thing on today as yesterday. Well, not much has changed, but if you looked, some has!

Looking at the moderate risk area (the area in the red circle in the 1st graphic) it is further south today than yesterday. The 2nd graphic is different also. The 45% area is also a little further south. Today it is also covered with little blue dashes. What do they mean? It means that there is a 30% chance of destructive severe weather in that pink area within 20 miles of a point. So, there is a 30% chance of DESTRUCTIVE SEVERE WEATHER in one place between Louisville and Charlestown, IN. This is the case at this point. But as you know things can change.

Even though you won't understand it, read this message from the Storm Prediction Center:

LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IA...IL INTO WRN KY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL BE MODULATED BY INTENSE SHEAR/FORCING WITHIN A WEAK LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. MEAN STORM FLOW AROUND 50KT SUGGEST ORGANIZED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES COULD EASILY ACCELERATE BEYOND THESE SPEEDS PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE DAMAGING WINDS. ANY HEATING AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL ONLY SERVE TO AID UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD SRN WI/WRN IND/SWRN LOWER MI BY NOON. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAT EVOLVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OR EVOLVE INTO MORE NUMEROUS CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. REGARDLESS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.

Just read what's in italics in this mess! That's all I expect you to half way understand! Potentially destructive damaging winds and tornadoes always produce a big deal.

I will post tomorrow early morning and all through the afternoon.