Wednesday, June 17th, 2009: 9:15pm

Here is the forecast for the next 7 days...highlighted by the many chances of severe weather and extreme heat...

The severe risk has ended for tonight except for central and southern Kentucky, and even that activity is waning.

Severe Opportunity #1: Thursday late morning-afternoon:



The SPC has Louisville and points southeast in a 30% chance of severe weather...and the rest of the area in a 15% chance of severe. This will not be anything widespread, but some severe weather is possible. Theses storms will intensify around noon, and it will depend on where they begin and how strong they get to see who will get the most severe weather. If southern Indiana does see any activity, the main severe threat will be large hail.

If we do not see storms, it will indeed be very warm and humid. Highs could reach 90 with no rain, and dewpoints in the 70s will bring heat indexes close to 100! Stay cool...

This will continue into Friday, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices near 100 again.

Severe Opportunity #2: Friday evening

Most of the area is in a 30% chance of severe weather for Friday. With very warm temps and dewpoints in place, along with many other aspects of severe weather in place, we could see a violent outbreak of severe storms. This from the SPC:
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT STRONGLY FAVORS ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE EVENING.ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP BY 18Z THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD WITHIN MEAN FLOW APPROACHING 50KT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE...POSSIBLY A DERECHO.

Remember this is not guaranteed...but there is the potential. For those who do not know what a derecho is...here's a picture and a brief description from Wikipedia:


A derecho (from Spanish: "derecho" meaning "straight") is a widespread and long-lived, violent convectively induced straight-line windstorm that is associated with a fast-moving band of severe thunderstorms in the form of a squall line usually taking the form of a bow echo. Winds in a derecho can be enhanced by downburst clusters embedded inside the storm. These straight-line winds can exceed 100 mi/hr (160 km/hr). Tornadoes sometimes form within derecho events, although such events are often difficult to confirm due to the additional damage caused by straight-line winds in the immediate area.

So, a lot to watch for in the next couple of days...stay tuned...I will post as much as possible or needed...

Alex C.