Saturday, January 24th, 2009: 10:30pm

The HPC has the southern Indiana/northern Kentucky area in a 40% chance of 4" of snow on Monday night, a 40% chance for 8" of snow for southern Indiana, (northern Kentucky, 10%), and a 10% chance of 12" of snow for southern Indiana...

A very interesting storm is shaping up over our area for Monday night-Wednesday. However, even though these maps look promising for snow, remember the fact that 90% of our huge snowstorms happen right after a cold front comes through. There will be a small clipper tomorrow night before this big storm, but that would not classify as a cold front.

Here's what the NWS and John Belski are saying about this storm:

NWS: THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST HAVING THE MOST IMPACT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KY...WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON TUES. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY...EXPECT MOSTLY ICE...SOME SNOW BUT PRIMARILY SLEET MON NIGHT/TUES WITH FREEZING RA LATE TUES. HAVE RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD. PRELIM NUMS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...THERE COULD BE UP TO A TENTH INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW.SO AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATIONAL THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR TUES NIGHT/WED. THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW/WINTRY MIX LINE WILL SCOOT NORTH TUES NIGHT ALLOWING A GREATER AREA OF IP/FZRA...HOWEVER SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW...

John Belski: Major snowstorm or major ice storm is possible. It all depends on amount of warming aloft. I don't see us getting the 12 inches of snow because we will probably go over to sleet and freezing rain. If it does stay all snow...look for 8 inches or more....and the highest chance for that would be along or a little north of interstate 64. Several inches of snow certainly likely before ice moves in.

My thoughts: Definitely an interesting storm, but I don't think right now that the >6 totals have any place in the forecast for now. My prediction is 2-4" of snow on Monday night-Tuesday, with an additional 1-2" Tuesday night-Wednesday. There could be some ice accumulations Tuesday night-Wednesday as well (HPC has us in moderate risk for .25" ice or more for Monday night). I don't think there will be much ice on Monday night, but Tuesday night could hold more ice.

I will concentrate on this part of the forecast for now, because after this storm, another could follow soon behind it...stay tuned for more tomorrow (Sunday)...

Alex C.