STORM ALERT: 1/26/09: 11:15am

First, I'll give you my thoughts before giving you others thoughts...

This storm seems to be coming together, with the snow amounts becoming easier to predict.

This storm is forcing warm air up and over the cold air that is in our area. This will create a distinguished freezing line with snow north and ice south.

My current thoughts...

Monday night-Tuesday morning: Southern Indiana will see mostly snow with some sleet mixed in...4-7 inches of snow/sleet. This is with the heavy band of snow I expect to see develop over southern Indiana Along the Ohio River will see 3-5 inches of snow/sleet, with possibly some freezing rain near the end of the first wave.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning: NWS needs to extend Winter Storm Warning...I think that we will then head into an ice event over southern Indiana. We will probably see around .1" ice before changing back into snow late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. I think 1-3 inches of snow may occur at the end. North central Kentucky will see a freezing rain event with some sleet/snow at the end. Ice accumulations should be around .25" with 1 or 2 inches of snow on the end.

Total Accumulations: Southern Indiana: 5-10 inches, .1" ice. North central Kentucky: 4-7 inches with .25" ice.

Here is the Weather Channel's precip forecast...

Here is the NWS forecast for snow...

This is the HPC's risk of 4 inches of snow through 8am Tuesday...

Here is the HPC 4 inch snow forecast for 8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday...

Also, the forecast for 8 inches of snow for 8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday...

HPC forecast for .25" ice from 8am Tuesday-8am Wednesday...

Marc Weinberg: 6-9 inches southern Indiana, 3-6 inches along Ohio River, 1-3 snow and ice over north central Kentucky.

John Belski: I am going to keep my forecast of 3 to 6 inches of snow for tonight If banding develops, there could be pockets in excess of 8 inches.A cooling occurs to our north Tuesday afternoon, heavy snow will develop, possibly reaching an inch an hour.On the left is the HPC 8 inch snow risk for Tuesday and Tuesday night with a moderate risk for the Seymour area. Some areas have the potential to exceed 10 inches.In Louisville the first wave of moisture will be mostly snow with some sleet at the end. It will warm aloft and the second wave coming in Tuesday afternoon will probably be freezing rain or sleet and it will be heavy. If it is fr. rain then I think there is potential for over 1/2 inch of ice accum. If it is snow and sleet mixed, the a couple of inches during the day is possible. As the second wave moves off Tuesday night we transition back to snow. I would say at least an inch of additional snow accumulation and possibly more. If we stay below 32 degrees tomorrow and have freezing rain, this could turn out to be a pretty bad ice storm. This is a situation where we will have to monitor hour by hour. Kind of similar to the December 2004 storm except that it is just a tad warmer.We have consistency folks, and that consistency brings a ICE STORM for areas along the Ohio River, while areas just to the north will recieve a significant amount of accumulating snow.

Patrick in Seymour: Here are latest projections across the area...
South Central Indiana (Including Seymour, Bedford, North Vernon): 6-9 inches of snow with isolated areas approaching 10 inches. Some sleet may mix in...
Southern Indiana: (Salem, Scottsburg, Paoli...pretty much just north of Louisville) 4-8 inches with some light icing possible.
Northern Kentucky: (Louisville, Bluegrass Park Way): 3-6 inches with a transition to freezing rain/sleet. A quarter inch of ice is possible. (Potential snowstorm and icestorm conditions)

Ryan Hoke: We're still looking good for 5 inches or so, but the amount of ice on top of that is increasing with each model run. The heaviest snow will fall just to our north in Indiana, with 8 or more inches there. If we start seeing colder temperatures at 850mb in the model runs tomorrow, we're in for some heavier snow. For now, I think this will be a moderate snow event tomorrow night with an icy mess on top by Tuesday afternoon. We're still on for a little bit of snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as well, so an inch or two could be appended on to the current 5 inch estimate.

Marcus Barnes: Total accumulations projected 11-12" of snow

I think that out of all of these forecasts, Marc Weinberg is the most likely to be correct for now (as well as Ryan Hoke and Patrick, who forecasted the same thing). I'm not quite convinced of Belski's some >8 inch totals tonight-tomorrow morning if banding occurs. However, this is what makes forecasting snow in this area so fun...stay tuned for more...

Alex C.